2016年-世界发展银行全球_Migration_and_Remittances___Recent_Developments_and_Outlook_48页_1mb

Migration and Development Brief 26 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of migration and remittance trends and policy developments in the context of international migration and development, published in April 2016 by the World Bank in collaboration with the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD). It outlines the global and regional dynamics of migration and remittances, the impact of economic and political factors, and the role of migration in responding to crises such as natural disasters and conflicts.

Main Points

1. Migration and Remittance Trends in 2015

• Global Migration: Over 250 million people (3.4% of the world population) lived outside their countries of birth in 2015.
• Migration Corridors: The largest migration corridors are Mexico-United States, Russia-Ukraine, and Bangladesh-India.
• Migrant Destinations: The United States is the top destination, followed by Saudi Arabia, Germany, and the Russian Federation.
• Migrant Workers: Smaller countries like Qatar (91%), United Arab Emirates (88%), and Kuwait (72%) have the highest proportions of migrant workers in their populations.
• Remittance Flows: Remittances to developing countries reached $432 billion in 2015, a modest increase of 0.4% compared to the previous year.
• Top Recipients: India received the most remittances in 2015, followed by China and the Philippines.

2. Outlook and Risks (2016–2017)

• Growth Projection: Remittance flows to developing countries are expected to grow by around 4% annually in 2016–17, consistent with earlier forecasts.
• Key Drivers: Improved economic conditions in the United States and Euro Area, and stabilization of the U.S. dollar against remittance-source currencies.
• Risks:
  • A decline in oil prices could reduce remittances from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
  • Black market premia and capital controls may limit formal remittance inflows in some countries.
  • Slower growth in high-income countries (such as the U.S. and EU) could depress remittances to developing countries.

3. Remittance Costs

• Global Average Cost: The average cost of sending $200 fell to 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly down from the previous quarter and 0.6 percentage points lower than the end of 2014.
• Highest Cost Region: Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest remittance costs, at 9.5%.
• Cost Trends: The cost of remittances has generally declined over the years, reflecting improvements in financial infrastructure and competition.

4. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• The SDGs emphasize:
  • Safe, orderly, and regular migration.
  • Limiting exploitation and abuse of migrants.
  • Reducing the costs of recruitment and remittances.
  • Improving data collection and policy analysis on migration and development.

5. Refugee Crises and Migration

• Global Refugee Situation: In June 2015, there were over 15 million refugees globally (excluding Palestinians), with 86% hosted by nearby developing countries.
• Syrian Crisis: Syria is the main source of refugees, with 2.7 million in Turkey, 1.1 million in Lebanon, and 0.6 million in Jordan.
• Refugee Children: 36% of European refugees are children, many of whom are vulnerable to exploitation and lack access to education.
• EU Response:
  • The EU has increased efforts to manage refugee flows, including Frontex rescuing 250,000 people at sea in 2015.
  • Internal border controls are being considered due to lack of consensus on burden sharing.
  • The EU has an agreement with Turkey to reduce irregular migration, but implementation has been delayed.
  • Refugee camps are overcrowded, and many refugees settle in poor rural areas with inadequate services.

6. Migration and Natural Disasters

• Diaspora Response: Migrants often send more money home during natural disasters, aiding affected populations.
• Disaster Impact: Disasters can disrupt remittance infrastructure, potentially reducing flows.
• Climate Change: Is expected to increase the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters, but the international community lacks a legal and institutional framework to manage migration resulting from such events.

Key Information

• KNOMAD: A global hub for knowledge and policy expertise on migration and development, supported by a multi-donor trust fund led by the World Bank, Germany's BMZ, Sweden's Ministry, and Switzerland's SDC.
• Remittance Forecast Methodology: Detailed in Annex 2, the projections are based on economic indicators, currency exchange rates, and historical trends.
• Regional Trends:
  • Latin America and the Caribbean had the highest remittance growth rate at 4.8% in 2015.
  • East Asia and the Pacific saw a 4.2% increase.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa experienced slower growth, at 1.0% and -0.9%, respectively.
  • Europe and Central Asia had a significant decline of 20.3% due to currency depreciation (ruble and euro).

Conclusion

The document highlights the complex relationship between migration, remittances, and global economic conditions. While remittance flows remain a critical source of income and development support for many developing countries, economic downturns, oil price volatility, and policy restrictions pose significant challenges. Additionally, the refugee crises, especially in Syria, Yemen, and Central America, underscore the human and economic costs of conflict and the need for improved data collection, policy frameworks, and international cooperation to address migration challenges effectively.