2024-12-16-IMF-阿拉伯联合酋长国_2024年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告（英）_70页_2mb

IMF Article IV Consultation Summary: United Arab Emirates

• Economic Growth: Robust growth driven by strong non-hydrocarbon activity, with overall GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023. Non-hydrocarbon sectors (tourism, construction, manufacturing, financial services) led expansion.

• Fiscal Position: High fiscal surplus (5% of GDP in 2023) and external balance supported by high oil prices. General government debt remains sustainable at 34% of GDP (projected to fall to 31.3% by 2024).

• External Sector: Large sovereign buffers mitigate vulnerabilities, with a current account surplus of 10.7% of GDP in 2023. Foreign reserves are at 8.2 months of imports.

• Monetary Policies: Banking system resilient; capital buffers above regulatory minima. Staff recommends managing surplus liquidity and developing domestic capital markets.

• Key Risks: External shocks, commodity price volatility, and abrupt global slowdown are key risks. Climate transition challenges require continuous attention.

• Outlook: Strong economic outlook with 3.7% GDP growth projected for 2024 and medium-term growth of 4.5%. Reforms and hydrocarbon sector expansion underpin the outlook.

• Policy Recommendations: Continue fiscal consolidation, sustain non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization via CIT reforms, manage liquidity, and enhance data quality for surveillance.

Conclusion: Authorities broadly agree with staff recommendations, emphasizing reforms and continued surveillance for sustainable growth.