战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-108_7页_147kb

Summary of The Prospects for ABM Treaty Modification by Alexander Pikayev (February 2000)

Core Content

The document analyzes the prospects for modifying the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty between the United States and Russia, focusing on the stalled START III/ABM Treaty negotiations since August 1999. The US seeks to allow limited National Missile Defense (NMD) systems to protect against missile threats from non-state actors and proliferators, while Russia refuses to discuss such modifications unless the START II agreement is in force. This stalemate reflects deeper political, strategic, and economic tensions between the two nations.

Main Views

• Deadlock Reasons:

  • Security Concerns: Russian officials fear that US NMD could undermine strategic stability by allowing the US to develop a more robust missile defense system.
  • Domestic Divisions: There is a growing divide between arms control advocates and those who favor a more unilateral approach to security.
  • Political Disagreements: Moscow-Washington tensions and Russia's domestic political climate have contributed to the stalemate.

• Russian Security Concerns:

  • North Korea: Russia believes that theater missile defenses (TMD) like THAAD and Naval Theater-Wide are sufficient to counter North Korean threats.
  • China: China's nuclear buildup in response to US NMD could weaken Russia's strategic advantage in the Far East.
  • Strategic Instability: Russia fears that a limited US NMD could lead to a "use it or lose it" scenario, where its reduced nuclear arsenal might be targeted in a first strike.

• Military Response vs. Arms Control:

  • Russia faces a dilemma: cooperate with the US to modify the ABM Treaty or take unilateral military measures.
  • Unilateral Measures: Russia may increase its nuclear arsenal, including MIRVed ICBMs, and resume strategic bomber patrols.
  • Countermeasures: Russia could also consider withdrawing from the START II Treaty and the INF Treaty if the US withdraws from the ABM Treaty.
  • Strategic Implications: These actions could destabilize the nuclear balance and lead to a breakdown in arms control.

• Russian Domestic Context:

  • Anti-Western Sentiment: Scandals involving Russian elites and Western financial institutions have damaged trust in the West.
  • Political Transition: The resignation of President Yeltsin and the rise of Vladimir Putin have shifted the balance of power in Russia.
  • Military Influence: The military has gained more influence in decision-making, especially after perceived successes in Chechnya and the Balkans.
  • Putin's Stance: Putin has not committed to ABM Treaty modification, but his administration may be more open to dialogue than Yeltsin's.

Key Information

• Demarcation Agreements: In 1997, Russia and the US agreed to allow certain TMD tests, which the US now seeks to expand.
• NMD and Strategic Stability: The US NMD is seen as a potential threat to Russia's strategic deterrence, prompting a reevaluation of its nuclear forces.
• Russia's Military Actions:
  • Resumed production of SS-N-23 SLBMs.
  • Purchased strategic bombers from Ukraine.
  • Conducted tests to improve missile penetration capabilities.
• Political Dynamics: The new Russian administration under Putin may have a more assertive stance, but could also seek to re-establish strategic dialogue with the US.
• Future Prospects: The document suggests that the ABM Treaty modification issue may either be resolved through renewed cooperation or lead to a breakdown in bilateral arms control.

Conclusion

The ABM Treaty modification issue is a critical point in US-Russian strategic relations, with both sides facing significant challenges. Russia's security concerns and domestic political shifts, particularly the rise of military influence and anti-Western sentiment, have made it resistant to modification. Meanwhile, the US seeks to expand its missile defense capabilities, which could destabilize the current strategic balance. The document concludes that the outcome will depend on how the new Russian administration under Putin balances its domestic political needs with the potential for renewed cooperation in arms control.