2025-06-11-花旗集团-巴西石油和天然气炼油商及营销商_数据池_我们的2025年6月燃料利润率月度报告_13页_479kb

Citi's Key Insights: Fuel prices at the pump decreased month-over-month (MoM); gasoline prices fell by -1% and diesel by -3% in May, driven by Petrobras's price cut. Despite this, gross margins remained relatively stable, with gasoline margins increasing slightly. Citi expects gasoline prices to decline in June due to ongoing price adjustments.

Fuel Market Dynamics: Lower diesel prices and biodiesel affordability allowed distributors to increase margins. Fuel sales volumes are projected to rise with seasonal effects, though market volatility may inhibit imports, keeping competition low in the spot market.

Company-Specific Analysis:

• Raizen (RAIZ4.SA): Target price of R$2.5, based on a DCF model. Upside risks include global sugar deficits and hybrid EV growth boosting ethanol demand; downside risks are project execution challenges and pure-EV adoption reducing biofuel need.
• Ultrapar (UGPA3.SA): Target price R$21.0, using a sum-of-parts approach for its divisions. Risks involve sector competition and restructuring, but growth opportunities in logistics and refining are noted.
• Vibra Energia (VBBR3.SA): Target price R$23, with a DCF basis. Potential upsides include strong economic recovery and strategic shifts to energy transition; downsides include economic underperformance and regulatory changes.

Overall Outlook: Citi maintains a positive view on the sector, citing stable margins and company strengths, though risks like volatility and competition remain monitored.