2025-06-16-花旗集团-全球观点_石油监测-石油的下一步走势以及持仓对价格的影响_13页_479kb

Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, pushed oil prices higher to $78.5/bbl, but disruptions are limited, and prolonged high prices are unlikely due to diplomacy-focused efforts by the Trump administration. Energy supply can increase, but Israel's actions may disrupt U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Equity fund flows showed net outflow of US$10 billion in the specified week, with bond funds receiving inflows. Defensive and low-rate beneficiary stocks are favored in Indonesia due to ongoing geopolitical risks, supporting resource exporters.

Laopu Gold is recommended with a higher buy target if gold prices hold, as the gold rally reduced its price premium, making high-end products more attractive. Sao Martinho is downgraded to Neutral due to expected lower year-over-year earnings from reduced sugarcane crushing and sugar prices.

US equity strategy highlights ROE improvement in select stocks, with Positive ROE Trend stocks outperforming. Geopolitical uncertainty increased after inflation reports, leading to market volatility, including higher oil and dollar, and lower yields. The outlook maintains focus on fundamentals amid Middle East developments.

BT Group is recommended Sell despite a price increase, as Openreach revenue is expected to decline due to broadband base shrinkage, and consensus underestimates the decline.

Key rating changes include Buys for companies like Accelink Technologies, China Telecom, and Laopu Gold, with Sells for others like BT Group and Polaris Inc, reflecting regional and sector-specific assessments.