2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Flexible_Credit_Line_the_Precautionary_and_Liquidity_Line_and_the_Rapid_Financing_Instrument_49页_1mb

IMF Policy Paper Summary: Review of Flexible Credit Line, Precautionary and Liquidity Line, and Rapid Financing Instrument

Core Content

This document is a review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL), Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL), and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff, prepared for the Executive Board's consideration in February 2014. It assesses the effectiveness of these instruments in the context of the global financial safety net (GFSN) and proposes potential reforms.

Main Points

1. The Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) and the IMF

• The GFSN is a multi-layered system comprising reserves, regional financing arrangements (RFAs), bilateral swap lines (BSAs), and IMF instruments.
• The IMF plays a central role in the GFSN by providing balance of payments support consistent with its Articles of Agreement and maintaining safeguards for its general resources.
• Despite the 2008 crisis, demand for FCL and PLL remains modest, influenced by political stigma associated with Fund engagement.
• Some emerging markets (EMs) have opted for regional and bilateral financing mechanisms instead of seeking IMF support, even though they may benefit from it.

2. FCL and PLL: Qualification and Conditionality

• The FCL is for members with "very strong" fundamentals and policy implementation, while the PLL is for those with "sound" fundamentals but some remaining vulnerabilities.
• Qualification assessments for these instruments are complex and often lack transparency.
• The paper proposes unifying the qualification areas for FCL and PLL without altering their standards, and introducing indicators of institutional strength to improve transparency.
• Ex-post conditionality could be used more extensively in PLL arrangements to address remaining vulnerabilities.

3. Access and Exit

• Access discussions for FCL and PLL have become more transparent since the 2011 review.
• There is no evidence of undue repeated use of the FCL.
• A new indicator is proposed to measure external risks and better anchor access decisions.
• Time-based commitment fees could be used to encourage timely exit from precautionary arrangements, reducing liquidity risks to the Fund.

4. RFI and Other Issues

• The RFI has not been used since its introduction in 2011, likely due to low access limits and the availability of alternative mechanisms.
• The paper suggests maintaining RFI access levels and enhancing its catalytic role through parallel Staff Monitored Programs (SMPs).
• Precautionary arrangements, including FCL and PLL, should continue to be fully scored in the Fund's forward commitment capacity (FCC).

Key Findings and Recommendations

A. Global Financial Safety Net

• The Fund has a central role in the GFSN, and FCL/PLL are important tools for crisis prevention and resolution.
• Regional and bilateral arrangements are not substitutes for the Fund's involvement but complement it.
• Political stigma continues to limit demand for Fund financing, even in times of heightened market volatility.
• The Fund should consider alternative engagement modalities and expand outreach to reduce stigma.

B. Qualification/Conditionality Framework

• The qualification process for FCL and PLL is challenging due to the difficulty in defining the minimum standards.
• Unifying qualification areas and using institutional strength indicators could improve transparency and predictability.
• Ex-post conditionality should be used more in PLL arrangements to address acute vulnerabilities.

C. Access and Exit

• Access discussions have become more thorough and transparent.
• A new external risk indicator is recommended to support access decisions.
• Time-based commitment fees may be introduced to encourage timely exit from precautionary arrangements.

D. RFI and Other Issues

• The RFI remains a potentially useful instrument but has not seen demand.
• Access limits should remain unchanged, and the catalytic role could be enhanced with parallel SMPs.
• Precautionary arrangements should continue to be fully scored in the FCC.

E. Next Review

• The next review of FCL, PLL, and RFI is proposed to be conducted on an as-needed basis.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the importance of the IMF's role in the GFSN and the need for continued reform to enhance the effectiveness of its lending instruments. It emphasizes the importance of reducing political stigma and improving transparency in qualification and access processes, while also suggesting ways to better support timely exit and enhance the catalytic role of the RFI.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Indicative External Economic Stress Index
• Figure 2a: Empirical Adverse Shock Distribution in Crisis Year
• Figure 2b: Empirical Adverse Shock Distribution One Year After The Crisis
• Figure 3: Empirical Adverse Shock Distribution: All Crisis Years and the Global Financial Crisis
• Figure 4: Marginal Cost of Reserves: Adjusted EMBI, 25th Percentile, and FCL Recipients
• Figure 5: Time Based Commitment Fees: Illustrative Scenarios
• Table 1: Assumptions Underpinning Adverse Shock Scenarios
• Table 2: Commitment Fee Charged by Other IFIs

Additional Information

• The paper draws on country surveys, interviews with senior staff, and analytical work to inform its recommendations.
• It acknowledges that the lack of demand for FCL and PLL may be due to both instrument design and broader political perceptions.
• The review also discusses the role of precautionary arrangements in the Fund's forward commitment capacity and the need for a more comprehensive framework for measuring external risks.