20250704-中辉期货-中辉黑色观点_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Core View: Short-term strong
Main Logic: De-capacity struggle and anti-competition efforts support the black commodities complex, boosting market sentiment. Fundamentals for steel remain stable, with high industry profitability, persistent blast furnace output, rising production of rebar, balanced domestic demand, strong export activity, and limited supply-demand issues. This combination leads to a bearish short-term outlook.
Price Interval: 3060 to 3100

Core View: Short-term strong
Main Logic: Production marginally increased while table demand declined slightly, but inventory levels stayed constant. Overall supply-demand balance holds due to ongoing export interest, and price increases are primarily driven by improved market sentiment rather than fundamental changes. Lacks significant catalysts for sustained movement but could continue moderate gains.
Price Interval: 3200 to 3240

Core View: Range-bound participation
Main Logic: Blast furnace activity has decreased modestly, but steel firm profits sustain demand for iron ore. Supply side uninterrupted by volume growth due to loading constraints, and port maintenance issues limit new shipments. Overall structure has weakened somewhat, yet prices remain firm due to strong miner sentiment and infrastructure challenges.
Price Interval: 725 to 760

Core View: Oscillation
Main Logic: Independent coke plant output fell, but steel sector demand absorbs it, leading to a moderate inventory decline. High absolute levels persist, and while demand is underpinned by rising blast furnace use, the short-term trajectory is sideways amid improved sentiment but firm resistance at price averages. Potential for turning lower in coming periods.
Price Interval: 1320 to 1455

Core View: Oscillation
Main Logic: Domestic output saw minor loss, but many pre-shutdown mines are restarting, easing supply pressures slightly. High upstream inventory contributes to range-bound dynamics. Renewed sentiment stems from better-than-anticipated spot sales, but strong historical support from momentum at 60-day indicators keeps resistance builders active.
Price Interval: 845 to 875

Core View: For both锰硅 (Silicon-Manganese) and硅铁 (Silicon)
Main Logic: Despite lingering concerns of seasonal demand fades and moderate industry adjustments, sentiment improves from tight supply at harbors for锰硅 and reduced furnace starts for the silicon complex. However, fundamentals lack full confirmation, leading to cautious range-participation or oscillatory patterns amid uncertainty.
Price Intervals:
- 锰硅: 5610 to 5810
- 硅铁: 5295 to 5485

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