2022-03-09-亚太地区科技行业-半导体_YTD回调是一个很好的积累机会_但要有选择性_30页_1mb

ASEAN Technology Sector (Semiconductor) Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the ASEAN technology sector, specifically focusing on the semiconductor industry. It highlights investment opportunities and market outlook for the sector as of 8 March 2022, with a particular emphasis on the YTD (Year-to-Date) pullback as a buying opportunity for investors.

Key Points

• YTD Pullback as an Opportunity: The market has experienced a significant pullback, with most ASEAN semiconductor stocks down 30–50% YTD. This is viewed as a good opportunity to accumulate positions due to the expected rebound in the second half of the year, noting a seasonal trend in earnings performance.
• Impact of Fed Rate Hike: The market has already priced in the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, which was a major concern for investors. Geopolitical tensions are also affecting sentiment.
• Focus on EPS Growth: Unlike 2020 and 2021, where stock prices were driven by P/E expansion, the current focus is on EPS growth. The analysis suggests that stocks with exposure to structural growth areas like EV (Electric Vehicles), data centers, and 5G are preferred.
• Valuation Considerations: Some stocks are now trading below their historical average, making them potentially attractive. The analysis suggests that Malaysia offers better value compared to Singapore and Thailand, based on liquidity, investor interest, and growth outlook.
• Stocks to Consider: The recommended order of stocks for investment includes: Inari Amertron, Frontken, Pentamaster, KCE, Nanofilm, Venture, Delta Electronics, and Hana Microelectronics.

Key Companies and Their Performance

Malaysia

• Inari Amertron (INAR.KL): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $2,340M, Target Price – $3.80, Share Price – $2.64, Upside – 44%. Key focus: Content gains and higher assembly share for RF. Diversification also a focus.
• Frontken (FRKN.KL): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $858M, Target Price – $4.00, Share Price – $2.27, Upside – 76%. Key focus: Leveraged to global foundry growth. New plant in Taiwan is a milestone.
• Pentamaster (PMAS.KL): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $477M, Target Price – $4.90, Share Price – $2.80, Upside – 75%. Key focus: Moving on from recovery to growth. Automotive is a major growth driver.

Singapore

• Nanofilm (NANO.SI): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $1,162M, Target Price – $3.70, Share Price – $2.39, Upside – 55%. Key focus: Nanofabrication ramp-up and vertical/horizontal expansion.
• Venture (VENM.SI): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $3,500M, Target Price – $21.50, Share Price – $16.38, Upside – 31%. Key focus: Robust demand expected across various technology domains in 2022.

Thailand

• KCE Electronics (KCE.BK): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $1,950M, Target Price – $82.00, Share Price – $54.75, Upside – 50%. Key focus: Supply-demand imbalance in the automotive industry to drive growth.
• Delta Electronics (DELTA.BK): Rating – Outperform, Market Cap – $12,557M, Target Price – $490.00, Share Price – $334.00, Upside – 47%. Key focus: EV and data center to drive near-medium term growth.
• Hana Microelectronics (HANA.BK): Rating – Neutral, Market Cap – $1,073M, Target Price – $55.00, Share Price – $44.25, Upside – 24%. Key focus: SiC venture in South Korea with production ramp-up in 3Q/4Q 2022.

Summary Table of Key Metrics

Valuation and Growth Outlook

• Average EPS Growth Estimates:

  • Malaysia: +26% YoY
  • Singapore: +19% YoY
  • Thailand: +46% YoY

• Valuation Considerations:

  • Some stocks are now trading below their historical average.
  • Malaysia is preferred due to better liquidity, investor interest, and growth outlook.
  • The pecking order for investment includes: Inari Amertron, Frontken, Pentamaster, KCE, Nanofilm, Venture, Delta Electronics, and Hana Microelectronics.

Strategic Outlook

• Investment Strategy: The YTD pullback is seen as an opportunity to accumulate positions, with a focus on stocks that are expected to benefit from structural growth in the technology sector.
• Growth Drivers: The analysis highlights that the semiconductor sector is expected to benefit from growth in areas like EV, data centers, and 5G.
• Market Sentiment: The market has already priced in the impact of Fed rate hikes and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but the second-half rebound is anticipated.