那提西银行-亚太地区-宏观经济-经合组织国家推迟了艰难的调整：这是明智的选择吗？-20180411-5页_498kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document titled "Flash Economics: OECD countries have put off difficult adjustments: Is this a wise choice?" published on 11 April 2018 discusses the economic behavior of OECD countries in delaying necessary adjustments in the post-crisis era. These adjustments include reducing debt ratios, normalizing interest rates, and decreasing CO₂ emissions. The author argues that this delay is not justified due to the uncertain future economic outlook, particularly concerning productivity and population trends.

Main Adjustments Put Off

The following three key adjustments have been postponed by OECD countries:

1. Reduction in Debt Ratios

   • Chart 1 illustrates the trend of debt ratios in OECD countries.
   • The delay in reducing debt suggests a preference for current financial stability over future fiscal discipline.

2. Reduction in Liquidity and Normalisation of Interest Rates

   • Chart 2A shows the liquidity levels, while Chart 2B depicts interest rate trends.
   • Central banks have maintained high liquidity and low interest rates, likely to support economic growth and avoid financial stress.

3. Sufficient Reduction in CO₂ Emissions

   • Chart 3 highlights CO₂ emission levels.
   • The postponement of emission reductions is attributed to the belief that current levels are sufficient to meet climate goals, despite long-term environmental concerns.

When Is It Logical to Postpone Adjustments?

The document acknowledges that delaying adjustments can be rational if the future economic environment is more favorable. The rationale is based on smoothing consumption—if future production is higher, adjustments that reduce current consumption (such as deleveraging or rate hikes) would be less painful.

However, the author challenges this logic by pointing out:

• Productivity stagnation: There is no indication of a resurgence in productivity gains (Chart 4).
• Population aging: This trend is expected to intensify, potentially slowing economic growth (Chart 5).

These factors suggest that the future economic environment may not be as robust as assumed, making the postponement of adjustments less justifiable.

Conclusion

The author concludes that it is difficult to justify the delay in necessary economic adjustments by OECD countries. The decision to prioritize the present over future reforms is not based on sound economic reasoning but rather on a strong preference for current consumption.

The report emphasizes that such delays may lead to increased financial and environmental risks in the long term, as the underlying economic conditions that support these policies are not expected to improve significantly.

Key Information

• Postponed Adjustments: Debt reduction, liquidity reduction, interest rate normalization, and CO₂ emission cuts.
• Reason for Delay: Preference for present consumption and belief in higher future growth.
• Uncertainty Factors: Stagnant productivity and aging population.
• Conclusion: The delay is not justified and may lead to future economic challenges.

Disclaimer Highlights

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is confidential and must not be disclosed to third parties without consent.
• It is not a personalized investment recommendation and does not constitute financial analysis.
• No liability is accepted for any use or interpretation of the information.
• The document is based on public information and does not reflect formal approval from Natixis.
• The views expressed are personal and may differ from those of other analysts or the firm.