20170605-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_1mb

报告摘要

China Cement Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the Chinese cement industry, focusing on price trends, industry profits, stock performance, and regional market share. It also includes valuation metrics and market comparisons for major cement companies.

Key Highlights

Cement Price Trends

National cement prices rose slightly, with an average increase of 0.2% week-on-week to RMB 338.67/tonne.
Regional variations were observed:
- Prices in Hunan, Guangxi, and Ningxia increased by RMB 20-30/tonne.
- Prices in the Pearl River Delta area decreased by RMB 20/tonne, primarily in bagged cement.
Average inventory level (nationwide) climbed slightly to 61.06% at the end of May due to the Dragon Boat Festival, farming season, and rainfall.

Industry Profit

Industry profit in April surged by 276% YoY, reaching RMB 7.1 billion, a three-year high.
The strong growth was attributed to the low base effect from last year, as the cement price rally began in late Q3 2016.
The profit in April was much higher than the total profit of RMB 6.5 billion in Q1 2017, which was impacted by Lunar New Year and winter season.
The YoY earnings growth in Q2 2017 is expected to remain strong due to the low base effect.
The critical point is whether cement prices will rise further during the peak season in Q4 2017; otherwise, earnings growth could slow significantly due to the higher base effect in Q4 2016.

Stock Performance

Cement stocks under coverage declined on average by 1.5% last week.
Anhui Conch (0914.HK) was the best performer, rising 0.6%.
CNBM (3323.HK) was the weakest, falling 3.8%.
Rating for Anhui Conch is HOLD, for CNBM is SELL, and for CR Cement is BUY.

Valuation Metrics

Valuation Table includes metrics such as PER (x), PBR (x), and EV/EBITDA (x) for various companies.
Simple average and weighted average of the valuation metrics are provided for comparison.
Anhui Conch has a weighted average PER of 12.1, and CR Cement has a weighted average PER of 12.3.
Net debt/equity (%) for Anhui Conch is (5), indicating negative debt, while for CNBM it is 219%.

EPS Growth and PEG

EPS Growth (%) for 2017E and 2018E is detailed.
Anhui Conch had a 35.7% EPS growth in 2017E and 1.8% in 2018E.
CNBM had a 119.6% EPS growth in 2017E and 7.3% in 2018E.
CR Cement had an 82.6% EPS growth in 2017E and a -3.4% decline in 2018E.
PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) is also provided, with Anhui Conch at 0.7 and CNBM at 0.2.

Dividend Yield

Dividend yield (%) for 2016, 2017E, and 2018E is included.
Anhui Conch has a 2.3% dividend yield in 2016, rising to 2.7% in 2017E and 2.6% in 2018E.
CR Cement has a 2.3% dividend yield in 2016, increasing to 4.1% in 2017E and 4.6% in 2018E.

Market Share by Region

Figure 9 shows the market share in terms of clinker capacity by region.
Anhui Conch dominates in East China, with a 17.6% share.
CNBM has a 23.8% share in South Central China.
CR Cement has a 10.7% share in South Central China.
BBMG has a 5.4% share in North China.
TCCI has a 29.3% share in North China.
Asia Cement has a 15.9% share in Northeast China.
WCC has a 15.9% share in Southwest China.

Main Points

Cement prices have shown slight increases in some regions, while others have seen declines.
The profit growth in April was largely due to the low base effect.
Stock performance varied, with some companies rising and others falling.
Valuation metrics indicate different levels of performance across the sector.
Market share by region highlights the dominance of certain companies.
The future earnings growth will depend on price trends in the peak season.

Key Information

Cement prices and inventory levels are influenced by seasonal factors and regional conditions.
Profit growth in April is a three-year high, driven by the low base effect.
Stock performance and ratings reflect the current market sentiment.
Valuation metrics such as PER, PBR, and EV/EBITDA are used to assess the financial health and future growth potential.
Market share data highlights the regional exposure and dominance of different companies.
The disclaimer and interest disclosure emphasize the independent nature of the research and the potential conflicts of interest.