20160517-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed overview of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, including equity indices, market performance, upcoming results, stock recommendations, sector analysis, valuations, and external market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Closed at: 19,884
  • Daily change: +0.8%
  • Year-to-date change: -9.3%

• HSCEI:

  • Closed at: 8,313
  • Daily change: +0.1%
  • Year-to-date change: -14.0%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • Closed at: 2,851
  • Daily change: +0.8%
  • Year-to-date change: -19.4%

• Shenzhen Composite:

  • Closed at: 1,815
  • Daily change: +1.7%
  • Year-to-date change: -21.4%

• DJIA: 17,711 (+1.0%)

• S&P 500: 2,067 (+1.0%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 4,775 (+1.2%)

• FTSE 100: 6,151 (+0.2%)

• DAX: 9,953 (+0.9%)

• CAC 40: 4,312 (-0.2%)

• Nikkei 225: 16,589 (+0.7%)

• Taiwan Weighted: 8,068 (+0.2%)

Market Performance

• Market Up/Down Ratios:

  • The market and HSI show mixed performance over the past seven trading days, with approximately 1,700 listed companies (excluding GEM, ETF, unlisted, and suspended companies) being analyzed.

• Yesterday's Performance:

  • Hong Kong stocks reversed from three consecutive days of declines and rose with Asian markets.
  • HSI gained 164 points, closing at 19,883.
  • HSCEI rose 11 points, closing at 8,312.
  • Main Board turnover was HK$56.4 billion.
  • Domestic consumption stocks, particularly Want Want China, showed strong performance due to increased shareholder activity.
  • Tencent gained 3.1% on anticipation of good Q1 results.

Upcoming Results

• A list of upcoming results for various companies is provided, covering multiple sectors, with dates ranging from 17 May to 3 June 2016.
• Key companies include:
  • CAR INC (699.HK)
  • COMTEC SOLAR (712.HK)
  • TENCENT (700.HK)
  • CSPC PHARMA (1093.HK)
  • EVERGRANDE (3333.HK)

Stock in Focus

• CRCC High-Tech-H (1786.HK):
  • Last Close: HK$4.34
  • Entry: HK$4.00
  • Target: HK$4.95
  • Stop-loss: HK$3.46
  • YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -10.5%/-9.4%/13.9%/#N/A
  • Market Cap: HK$6.46 billion
  • 3M Average Daily Volume: 1.05 million shares
  • FY1 Forward P/E: 10.3
  • The company is well-positioned to benefit from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei railway development and has strong technological advantages.
  • It is expected to see growth in its overseas sales due to partnerships with major Chinese railway companies.

Today's Top Picks

• Kenford Group (464.HK):

  • Last Close: HK$1.05
  • Target Price: HK$1.17
  • Reason: Share price is trending up and may test the 50-day moving average.

• Kiu Hung Int'l (381.HK):

  • Last Close: HK$0.073
  • Target Price: HK$0.080
  • Reason: Share price rallied with increased turnover; a small bet is suggested.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors (1D):

  • Other Metals (+3.0%)
  • Logistics (+2.6%)
  • Heavy Machinery (+2.5%)
  • Infrastructure (+2.1%)
  • Brokerages (+2.0%)
  • Steel (+1.8%)
  • Coal (+1.6%)
  • Consumer Staples (+1.3%)

• Key Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:

  • Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358.HK), CMOC (3993.HK), Zhaojin Mining (1818.HK), Zijin Mining (2899.HK)
  • Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636.HK), SITC (1308.HK)
  • Heavy Machinery: Sany Int'l (631.HK), Zoomlion (1157.HK), Lonking (3339.HK), Sinotruk (3808.HK)
  • Infrastructure: China Railway (390.HK), China Railway Cons. (1186.HK), CSR Corp. (1766.HK), China Comm. Cons. (1800.HK), China Machinery Eng. (1829.HK)
  • Brokerages: First Shanghai (227.HK), Central China Sec. (1375.HK), CITIC Sec. (6030.HK), Haitong Sec. (6837.HK), China Galaxy Sec. (6881.HK)
  • Steel: Angang Steel (347.HK), Maanshan Iron (323.HK), Shougang Res (639.HK)
  • Coal: China Shenhua (1088.HK), Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK), China Coal (1898.HK)
  • Consumer Staples: Want Want (151.HK), Uni-President (220.HK), Tingyi (322.HK), Hengan Int'l (1044.HK), Sun Art Retail (6808.HK)

Valuation Analysis

• Forward P/E and Valuations:
  • HSI: FY16E P/E = 10.7, Long-term avg. = 11.0, Deviation = -1.9%, FY1 EPS growth = -7.5%, FY2 EPS growth = 10.3%
  • HSCEI: FY16E P/E = 6.9, Long-term avg. = 7.9, Deviation = -13.4%, FY1 EPS growth = -5.2%, FY2 EPS growth = 9.3%
  • Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E = 13.0, Long-term avg. = 10.7, Deviation = +20.6%, FY1 EPS growth = 20.9%, FY2 EPS growth = 13.5%
  • S&P 500: FY16E P/E = 17.6, Long-term avg. = 15.3, Deviation = +15.2%, FY1 EPS growth = 8.8%, FY2 EPS growth = 13.7%

External Market Conditions

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7782% (+5.62 bps in 5D)
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 1.7430% (-1.83 bps in 5D)
  • U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.5850% (-2.72 bps in 5D)
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2079% (-1.93 bps in 5D)
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.5168% (-2.64 bps in 5D)
  • SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.8340% (-0.40 bps in 5D)
  • SH 3-month HIBOR: 2.9075% (+1.35 bps in 5D)

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD Dollar Index: 94.5130 (+0.2% in 5D)
  • USD/HKD: 7.7628 (0.0% in 5D)
  • EUR/USD: 1.1321 (-0.4% in 5D)
  • USD/JPY: 108.91 (+0.3% in 5D)
  • GBP/USD: 1.4448 (0.0% in 5D)
  • USD/CHF: 0.9778 (-0.2% in 5D)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7284 (-1.1% in 5D)
  • NZD/USD: 0.6781 (+0.3% in 5D)
  • USD/CAD: 1.2905 (0.0% in 5D)
  • USD/CNY: 6.5200 (0.0% in 5D)
  • USD/CNH: 6.5450 (-0.1% in 5D)

• Precious Metals and Commodities:

  • CRB Index: 184.6 (+4.3% in 5D)
  • Comex Gold: 1,277.6 (+1.0% in 5D)
  • Comex Silver: 17.205 (+0.7% in 5D)
  • Nymex WTI Crude: 47.78 (+7.0% in 5D)
  • ICE Brent Crude: 48.91 (+7.4% in 5D)
  • LME Copper: 4,645.00 (-0.9% in 5D)
  • LME Aluminum: 1,548.00 (-0.8% in 5D)
  • CBT Wheat: 473.50 (+2.7% in 5D)
  • CBT Corn: 392.75 (+3.1% in 5D)
  • CBT Soybean: 1065.25 (-1.7% in 5D)

A-share Premium to H-share

• A list of companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets with their respective prices and premiums is provided.
• Key Examples:
  • CMOC-H (3993.HK): A-share premium to H-share = 158.9%
  • Yanzhou Coal-H (1171.HK): A-share premium to H-share = 168.5%
  • China Shenhua-H (1088.HK): A-share premium to H-share = 39.6%
  • Evergrande (3333.HK): A-share premium to H-share = 62.3%

Market Data Highlights

• Best Performers:

  • CHINA PUBLIC PRO (1094.HK): +12.3% (1D)
  • CMOC-H (3993.HK): +8.4% (1D)
  • MAANSHAN IRON-H (323.HK): +6.0% (1D)
  • DAH CHONG HONG (1828.HK): +4.9% (1D)
  • WANT WANT CHINA (151.HK): +4.5% (1D)

• Worst Performers:

  • CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): -8.4% (1D)
  • EMPEROR WATCH & (887.HK): -4.2% (1D)
  • WANDA HOTEL DEV (169.HK): -4.1% (1D)
  • YUEXIU PROPERTY (123.HK): -4.0% (1D)
  • ANHUI EXPRESS-H (995.HK): -5.8% (1D)

• HSCI Volume Filter:

  • Highlighted stocks with significant volume changes, such as CMOC-H, YUEXIU PROPERTY, and others.

• Most Short Sold Stocks:

  • Highlighted companies with high short-selling turnover, including BANK EAST ASIA (23.HK), SWIRE PACIFIC-A (19.HK), and EVERGRANDE (3333.HK).

Conclusion

The Hong Kong market showed a mixed performance, with some sectors like Other Metals and Heavy Machinery performing well. The upcoming results calendar suggests potential market movements, especially for Tencent and other companies. CRCC High-Tech-H is highlighted as a stock with strong fundamentals and growth prospects, especially due to the railway development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The A-share premium to H-share remains a significant factor for investors, with several companies showing substantial premiums. External market conditions, including rising oil prices and U.S. stock gains, may influence the Hong Kong market positively, though caution is advised due to resistance levels.