2025-06-09-Bernstein-日本半导体台湾进口追踪（2025年5月）_测试设备势头持续_晶圆前端设备自4月进一步修正_18页_468kb

Report Summary: Japan Semiconductor Industry Analysis

Taiwan's semiconductor equipment imports showed mixed trends in recent data. While year-over-year growth was strong globally and from Japan, month-over-month (MoM) declines indicated a correction, particularly in Japanese equipment. This data provides insights into the performance of key Japanese semiconductor companies, with implications for their financials and stock ratings. Below is a synthesis of key findings from the May 25 Tracker update and associated analyses.

Key Findings from Import Data

• Overall Trends: Taiwan's semiconductor equipment imports increased year-over-year by 69% globally and 91% from Japan; however, MoM data showed a decline—globally down 3%, and from Japan down 13%—from previously weak April figures.
• Moving Averages: The three-month moving average for global imports rose by 3%, while Japan's semiconductor imports fell by 2%, suggesting lingering volatility despite YoY growth.

Impact on Individual Companies

Advantest

• Tester imports remain robust, with a 4% MoM increase in Taiwan data, potentially aligning with a stronger quarter (QoQ) based on regression analysis. This supports Advantest's strong performance, though the company indicated sequential declines.

Tokyo Electron (TEL)

• Equipment imports, such as CVD and cleaning tools, showed significant month-over-month reductions (-25% MoM), compounded by a negative quarterly growth trend. Despite positive YoY numbers, downtrends in key imports suggest pressures on TEL's revenue.

Screen Holdings

• Cleaner imports experienced another sharp drop (-37% MoM) compared to April, reflecting ongoing corrections. This data indicates challenges for Screen, particularly as Taiwan contributes 27% to their revenue, and may signal peaking investment activity.

Investment Implications and Ratings

• Advantest: Rated "Outperform" with a price target of ¥7,060, driven by strong tester demand.
• Tokyo Electron: Also rated "Outperform," with a price target of ¥33,800, despite quarterly revenue concerns.
• Screen: Rated "Market-Perform" with a price target of ¥11,300, reflecting weakness in import trends and competitive pressures.

This report underscores the divergence in semiconductor equipment demand, highlighting specific strengths in testing tools versus broader manufacturing segments, with market volatility expected to persist based on continuing MoM declines.