2025-06-02-Jefferies-斯堪斯卡（SKAB）_紧跟斯堪斯卡-数据追踪_9页_578kb

报告摘要

Swedish House Prices: Decreased by 20bps in May (adjusted for seasonal effects), based on Booli data.
Bond Yields and Lending Rates: Both edged higher; lending rates ticked up slightly in April.
Consumer Confidence: Stabilized in May after three months of declines.
Home Loan Growth: Gradually improving from a low base, while sales rates for BoKlok remained soft with no change in completed unsold homes through May.
Housing Starts: In April, housing loan growth accelerated, but multi-dwelling residential starts decreased year-on-year in Q1 2025.
Core Inflation: Data tracker shows mixed trends, with both US and European yields higher in May.
Catalysts: Swedish Flash CPI release on June 5th.

Skanska is a construction and property development company focused on civil engineering and residential/commercial building.
Current equity rating: Hold.
Price Target: SEK 235, up 3% from current price.
Total return outlook: Expected -10% to +15% over 12 months.
Analyst consensus supported by key metrics like 16.1x 2024E P/E and 14.3x 2024E EV/EBITDA.

Residential property price declines could positively impact profits due to reduced inventory costs.
Commercial property market strength may support attractive sale valuations.
Easing of conflicts in Eastern Europe/Finland could reduce 20-25% profit exposure due to projects there.

Next catalysts include Swedish economic data releases, with Flash CPI on June 5th.
Analyst coverage highlights key risks and opportunities in valuation models, including DCF-based approaches.

展开完整摘要