战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-171_5页_81kb

EU Enlargement in the Baltic Sea Region and Russia: Summary

Core Content

This policy memo, authored by Arkady Moshes and published in October 2000 by PONARS Policy Memo 171, analyzes the potential negative impacts of the European Union's enlargement to include Poland and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) on Russia. The author argues that the enlargement, while beneficial for the EU, poses significant challenges for Russia, particularly in economic, political, and social spheres.

Main Points and Key Information

Anticipated Negative Effects

• Economic Impact:

  • The introduction of EU standards and regulations will hinder Russian exports to new member states.
  • EU trade preferences for developing countries will reduce Russian competitiveness.
  • Increased trade within the EU will shift away from Russia, reducing market access for Russian goods.
  • The economic divide between Russia and the EU will deepen, especially along the Russian-Finnish border and further south.
  • Kaliningrad, an EU-adjacent Russian exclave, will face a sharp decline in exports and increased reliance on subsidies from Moscow.
  • The "visa fence" may isolate Kaliningraders, limiting their access to the rest of Russia.

• Political and Social Impact:

  • The restrictive visa regime will impede people-to-people exchanges and the development of a "security community."
  • The EU's enlargement may increase Russia's political isolation, particularly in the Baltic Sea region.
  • Regional initiatives like the Council of the Baltic Sea States and the Northern Dimension may lose focus due to the EU's attention being diverted to enlargement.
  • The EU may not be willing to act as a mediator for Russia's concerns, especially regarding the rights of Russian speakers in Latvia and Estonia.
  • The EU's stance on Chechnya has shown its willingness to prioritize its own interests over Russian concerns, risking further deterioration of relations.

Moscow's Position

• Balanced Approach:

  • Russia aims to maximize benefits from enlargement while minimizing negative consequences.
  • It proposes measures such as extending EU funding programs to its border regions, introducing a more favorable visa system, and creating a special agreement for Kaliningrad.

• Strategic Limitations:

  • Russia's ability to influence EU decision-making is limited.
  • It is institutionally restricted from accessing certain EU tools, making it harder to negotiate exceptions.
  • Russia rejects the trilateral format for negotiations, arguing that candidate countries lose sovereignty in trade policy.
  • The lack of a trilateral format hinders Russia's ability to influence EU decisions in its favor.

• Kaliningrad Concerns:

  • Moscow fears that focusing on Kaliningrad may inspire separatist sentiments in the region.
  • The EU has not shown willingness to address Kaliningrad's specific issues, treating them as a bilateral problem between Russia and its neighbors.

Uncertainty and Risks

• The Northern Dimension initiative, which aimed to promote transborder cooperation, is now formally detached from Finland and faces uncertainty about its future role.
• The EU's policy is not aimed at compromising with Russia, but rather at fulfilling its enlargement objectives.
• There are concerns about the EU's preparedness to manage the complex relationships between new members and Russia.

Recommendations

To mitigate the negative consequences of EU enlargement, the following recommendations are proposed:

• Shift to Joint Actions:

  • The EU should view Russia as a partner rather than a threat, engaging in collaborative efforts rather than reciprocal measures.

• Develop a Regional Strategy of Support:

  • A more flexible and inclusive strategy for the Northern Dimension should be created, involving not only EU institutions but also national governments, businesses, and civil society.

• Address Kaliningrad Specifically:

  • A detailed action plan with adequate financial support must be developed for Kaliningrad to avoid long-term economic and social consequences.

• Promote Integration of Russian Speakers:

  • All parties should work to integrate Russian speakers into Baltic societies through economic and political means, both before and after EU accession.

Conclusion

The memo emphasizes that while the EU's enlargement is a significant development, it is likely to have more negative than positive effects on Russia. The challenges include economic decline, political isolation, and social fragmentation, particularly in Kaliningrad. Russia's strategic limitations and the EU's rigid approach to enlargement make it difficult to find a mutually beneficial solution, highlighting the need for a more inclusive and flexible regional strategy.