战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-212_5页_81kb

After Afghanistan: Implications of the "War on Terrorism" for Central Asia

Core Content

The document analyzes the potential regional impacts of the U.S. involvement in the "war on terrorism" following the September 11 attacks, with a particular focus on Central Asia. It highlights the complex interplay between U.S. security interests and the political, economic, and social consequences for the five Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Main Points

U.S. Alliance with Central Asian States

• Uzbekistan's Role: Uzbekistan has been a key ally in the U.S. campaign against terrorism, allowing U.S. military presence and access to its airbases.
• Strategic Value: Uzbekistan's infrastructure, military capabilities, and historical role as a Soviet staging area made it an attractive partner for the U.S.
• Economic Motivations: Uzbekistan seeks to leverage its alliance with the U.S. to gain access to economic aid and investment, despite its poor record on economic reform and human rights.

Regional Implications

• Refugee Crisis: Central Asia, especially Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is expected to face a significant influx of Afghan refugees, exacerbating economic and social strains.
• Political Instability: The refugee influx could lead to increased political repression and support for militant Islamic groups, as governments may use the threat of terrorism to justify crackdowns on opposition.
• Radicalization: Past repression in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has led to the radicalization of Islamic movements, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Hizb-ut-Tahrir.
• Regional Tensions: A U.S. military presence in Uzbekistan may increase tensions with other Central Asian states and with Russia, as it challenges Russia's traditional dominance in the region.

Key Information

Refugee Influx

• Affected Countries: Tajikistan (border districts Garm and Badakhshan) and Kyrgyzstan (Bakten) are likely to be heavily impacted.
• Economic Burden: The refugee crisis will place additional strain on already struggling economies, particularly Tajikistan, which is the poorest post-Soviet state.
• Smuggling Networks: These regions have long served as corridors for smuggling weapons, drugs, and people, which could worsen with the war.

Political Repression

• Government Response: The governments of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are likely to increase repression against Islamic groups and political dissent.
• Historical Context: In Uzbekistan, repression of Islam since 1992 has led to the formation of the IMU, which now advocates violent overthrow of the government.
• Perception of Threat: The U.S. alliance is seen as a threat by some local populations, potentially fueling support for militant groups.

Regional Tensions

• Uzbekistan's Ambitions: Uzbekistan aims to become a regional hegemon, and a U.S. military presence may reinforce this perception.
• Russia's Role: The U.S. alliance could reduce Russia's influence in the region, leading to increased tensions between Uzbekistan and Russia.
• Unilateral Military Buildup: A U.S.-led military buildup in Uzbekistan could destabilize the region and create long-term security risks.

Policy Recommendations

• Economic Aid: Provide a comprehensive economic aid package to help Central Asian states manage the refugee crisis and address poverty.
• Human Rights and Democratization: Continue to pressure Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states to improve their human rights and democratic records.
• Avoid Unilateral Military Buildup: Focus on economic support rather than a unilateral military presence, ensuring aid is tied to political and economic reforms.

Conclusion

The U.S. alliance with Central Asian states, particularly Uzbekistan, carries both strategic and humanitarian risks. While it may serve U.S. security interests, it could lead to increased regional instability, economic strain, and political repression. A balanced approach that prioritizes economic development and human rights is essential to mitigate these effects.