20230417-华金期货-生猪周报_12页_2mb

Summary of Huajin Futures Livestock Weekly Report (2023/4/17)

Market Overview

The report highlights a decline in both livestock futures and spot prices for pigs, with the national average spot price dropping to nearly 7 yuan per kg, driven by excessive supply and weak demand. The average gross profit for self-reared pigs was -3,470 yuan per head, with high feed costs exacerbating losses.

Key Data Points

• Futures Prices: The LH2305 contract closed at 14,645 yuan, a 21.4% weekly decrease; LH2307 fell 5.2%, and LH2309 decreased by 36.2%.
• Spot Prices: National average spot price was 3,710 yuan/kg, down 3.3%. Henan region saw a slight drop of 0.8%.
• Inventory: Sow inventory decreased due to porcine瘟疫 and prolonged price-cost ratios below breakeven, though the trend is slowing post-winter.
• Outsourcing: Outslaugher volume was low, with a reduced slaughter rate, indicating market constraints.
• Profitability: The pig-to-feed ratio was 5:1, and the pig-feed ratio was 24, suggesting persistent losses. Future estimated average losses per pig are around 20,812 yuan.
• Demand Factors: Supply is ample due to reduced sick pigs. Demand is weak except for potential slight boosts ahead of the May Day holiday.
• Policy: There is rising anticipation of government purchase interventions, but recent signals indicate no immediate action.
• Trends: Long-term issues, like stock inventory and reduced supply in peak periods, are expected to influence price stability.

Conclusions

The market remains under pressure from oversupply and high feed costs, with potential short-term relief from holiday demand, but overall fundamentals point to continued volatility and losses for producers.