2016年-世界发展银行全球_Cigarette_Affordability_in_China_2001-2016_32页_2mb

Cigarette Affordability in China (2001-2016) Summary

Core Content

This study analyzes the affordability of cigarettes in China from 2001 to 2016, focusing on how economic growth and taxation policies have influenced smoking behavior and public health outcomes. The research highlights the importance of affordability in shaping tobacco consumption patterns and emphasizes the need for tax policy reforms to make cigarettes less affordable, particularly for low-income groups.

Main Points

• Affordability and Economic Growth: China's rapid economic growth over the past two decades has significantly increased people's purchasing power. As a result, cigarette affordability has improved, with the average-price cigarettes becoming 1.85 times more affordable in 2016 than in 2001.

• Low-Income Affordability: The cheapest cigarette brands, typically consumed by low-income individuals, have become 2.09 times more affordable over the same period, indicating a faster increase in affordability for this group compared to average-income consumers.

• Affordability Elasticity: The study estimates the affordability elasticity of cigarette consumption in China at -0.6, meaning a 10% increase in affordability leads to a 6.01% increase in cigarette consumption.

• Global Comparison: China's cigarette affordability has increased rapidly compared to other countries. Despite being a lower middle-income country (LMIC) in the early 2000s, it has seen the fastest growth in affordability, surpassing many other nations.

• Policy Implications: The findings suggest that tax policy should focus on increasing the nominal price of cigarettes more than the rate of income and inflation growth to reduce consumption and prevalence. Policy makers should also consider affordability by income group, especially for low-income and rural populations.

Key Definitions and Methods

• RIP (Relative Income Price): Measures the percentage of per capita disposable income required to buy 100 packs of cigarettes. A higher RIP indicates lower affordability.

• IPC (Income Purchasing Capacity): Measures the number of cigarette packs that can be purchased with per capita disposable income. A higher IPC indicates greater affordability.

• CAI (Cigarette Affordability Index): A measure of the change in affordability over time, calculated as the ratio of affordability in a given year to that in the base year (2001).

• Data Sources:

  • Price Data: Derived from the WHO TaXSiM China model, which calculates weighted average prices and the price of the cheapest category.
  • Income Data: Based on per capita disposable income data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, with rural and urban income data used to assess affordability for low-income groups.

Key Legislation and Frameworks

• FCTC Article 6: Recommends that tax policies should consider price elasticity, income elasticity, inflation, and income changes to reduce tobacco affordability and consumption.

Income Disparities in China

• Rural-Urban Gap: The urban-to-rural disposable income ratio reached 3.3 in several years between 2001 and 2016, indicating significant income inequality.

• Income Quintiles: Chinese households are categorized into five income groups, with the top 20% classified as high-income and the remaining 80% as lower income groups. The study emphasizes the importance of analyzing affordability for low-income and rural populations.

Affordability Trends

• Average Cigarette Affordability:

  • In 2001, the cost of 100 packs of average-price cigarettes was 10.15% of per capita disposable income.
  • By 2016, this had decreased to 5.50%, showing a significant increase in affordability.
  • The average IPC increased from 985 packs in 2001 to 1820 packs in 2016.

• Cheap Cigarette Affordability:

  • In 2001, the cost of 100 packs of cheap-brand cigarettes was 5.07% of rural per capita disposable income.
  • By 2016, this had decreased to 2.43%, indicating a faster increase in affordability for cheap brands.
  • The IPC for cheap brands increased from 1972 packs in 2001 to 4121 packs in 2016.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates that cigarette affordability in China has increased substantially over the past 16 years, particularly for low-income and rural populations. This trend has been driven by rapid economic growth and rising incomes. However, the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing smoking depends on the relative increase in cigarette prices compared to income and inflation. The research supports a shift in policy focus from price-based measures to affordability-based strategies, with an emphasis on improving the affordability index for low-income groups to promote public health and sustainable development.