牛津经济研究院-投资社会和经济适用房的经济案例（英）-2023.7-39页_1mb

Economic Case for Investing in Social & Affordable Housing

• Housing Gap:

  • Estimated shortfall of 750,700 dwellings in 2023 (190,900 social + 559,800 affordable).
  • Gap expected to grow to 946,900 by 2041 (26% increase).

• Economic Impact:

  • Closing the gap could lower rental growth to 2.0% vs. baseline 2.6%.
  • Property prices tempered slightly (median growth ~3.8% vs. 4.0%).
  • Inflation impact minimal (~0.04% reduction annually).
  • Benefits include reducing homelessness, improving productivity, and health outcomes.

• Funding:

  • $511 billion investment required (average $28B/yr) by 2041.
  • Super-profits tax could fund gap closure:
    • Economy-wide tax raises $290B/10yrs.
    • Mining-only tax fully funds social housing gap ($93B by 2033) and 12% of affordable gap.

• Government Policies:

  • Current plans: 30,000 social + 20,000 affordable dwellings via Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF).
  • HAFF insufficient (~$40B vs. $511B needed).

• International Precedents:

  • Norway’s Special Petroleum Tax ensures fair returns to public resources.
  • Temporary EU/UK windfall taxes address energy crises.

• Key Recommendations:

  • Expand social/affordable housing supply.
  • Implement well-designed super-profits tax to fund investments.
  • Enhance government coordination across levels.

Appendix: Technical details on revenue projections and economic impact modelling.