20151204-三星证券-Developed_markets_enjoy_inflows_12页_1mb

Fund Flow Weekly Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global and regional fund flows for the week of Nov 26 - Dec 2, 2015. It includes insights into equity and bond fund movements, foreign and domestic investor behavior, and the impact of central bank policies on market dynamics.

Main Points

• Developed Markets Enjoy Inflows: Fund flows in developed markets (DMs) improved, with bond funds turning to a net gain for the first time in three weeks. Equity funds also saw increased inflows, driven by expectations of further ECB easing.

• Emerging Markets (EMs) Face Continued Outflows: EM equity funds have experienced outflows for five consecutive weeks. However, the net losses have decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a slight easing of risk aversion. Vietnam and Indonesia remain among the top countries with net outflows.

• ECB and Fed Impact: The ECB's meeting disappointed the market, leading to potential profit-taking. Investors are expected to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting.

• Regional Fund Flows:

  • Asia ex Japan: Net outflows decreased slightly, with flows improving across the region.
  • Latin America: Net inflows increased, but political uncertainty remains a concern.
  • EMEA: Net outflows were minimal, with Russia showing positive inflows.
  • Korea: Domestic equity funds experienced a net loss for the fifth consecutive week, while foreign investors showed a net inflow.

• Domestic Fund Flows: Domestic investors continued to have a wait-and-see attitude, particularly due to the Kospi's range-bound movement. Domestic equity funds had a limited net gain, while domestic-invested funds saw net outflows.

• Bond Fund Flows: Bond funds in DMs turned net positive, with Western Europe and North America leading the inflows. EM bond funds faced accelerated outflows due to political uncertainty in Latin America.

• Foreign Investor Behavior:

  • In most Asian markets, foreign investors were net sellers.
  • Korea saw a net inflow from foreign investors, which was a positive trend compared to previous weeks.
  • Other Asian countries like India and Thailand had mixed results, with some showing net inflows and others outflows.

• Investor Type Analysis:

  • Foreign Investors: Showed net inflows into Korean equity funds, particularly in companies like Samsung SDI and Hyundai Development Co.
  • Local Institutional Investors: Showed net buying in various sectors, with a focus on companies like Posco and Samsung Life Insurance.

Key Information

• Global Equity Fund Flows: Total net inflows were USD 2,125m, with DMs accounting for USD 6,360m and EMs for USD -397m.
• Global Bond Fund Flows: Net inflows were USD -457m, with DMs showing USD 4,165m in net inflows and EMs showing USD -1,591m.
• Kospi Performance: The Kospi remained in a range of 1,950-2,050, influencing domestic investor behavior.
• MSCI Korea Top-10 Stocks:
  • Foreign Investors: Net buying was concentrated in Samsung SDI, Hyundai Development Co, and others.
  • Local Institutional Investors: Net buying was observed in Posco, Samsung Life Insurance, and other major firms.

Conclusion

The report highlights a shift in fund flows toward developed markets, particularly in bond funds, while emerging markets continue to face outflows. Foreign investors in Korea showed a net inflow, indicating some confidence, but overall, there is a cautious approach due to uncertainty around central bank policies and market conditions. Domestic investors remain观望 (wait-and-see), and local institutional investors have shown a more active buying stance.