2026年全球消费品行业展望报告_零售新范式_16页_4mb

Consumer Goods Outlook 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Consumer Goods Outlook 2026 report provides a comprehensive analysis of global retail and consumer trends, focusing on demand dynamics, regulatory changes, economic factors, and technological advancements. It highlights how various regions and markets are shaping the future of consumer goods through policy shifts, trade restrictions, and evolving consumer preferences.

Main Trends and Predictions

Global Retail Sales Volume

• Growth: Global retail sales volume is expected to rise by 1.7% in 2026, driven by increased demand in Asia, particularly in China, where government stimulus will provide a mild boost to consumption.
• Challenges: In the US and Europe, trade wars, persistent inflation, and tighter immigration rules will dampen consumer confidence and remittance outflows, reducing spending in countries like India, Mexico, China, and the Philippines.
• Consumer Behavior: Cost-conscious consumers will seek cheaper deals, prompting retailers to expand private labels and loyalty schemes. For example, Carrefour aims to have 40% of its food sales from private labels by 2026.
• BNPL Schemes: Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) schemes will gain popularity in Latin America and South Asia, with regulatory support and banking licenses.

Online Retail

• Growth Headwinds: Online retail growth will face challenges due to the removal of the US de minimis exemption (allowing tariff-free shipments of small packages) in September 2025. This will erode price advantages of cheap imports from China and Southeast Asia.
• EU and Other Markets: The EU is likely to end its €150 de minimis exemption and introduce a €2 handling fee per package from outside the EU. Chile has already done this, and Japan is considering a similar overhaul.
• Impact on Consumers: These changes will result in higher costs for consumers, especially in Europe and the US.
• Chinese Retailers: Companies like Shein and Temu will be affected, leading to increased local warehousing and supplier integration in key markets.

Food Sales

• Moderate Growth: Food sales will grow at a slower rate than overall consumer spending, rising by 5% in 2026 (vs. 5.4% for overall consumer spending).
• Drivers: Food remains a top priority, accounting for ~18% of global consumer spending, but will be constrained by persistent food price inflation and new regulations/taxes.
• Regulatory Impact: The US will phase out synthetic food dyes, while South Korea and Canada will tighten nutritional labelling laws. Vietnam and Colombia will raise alcohol taxes, and Saudi Arabia will start lifting its alcohol ban.
• Anti-obesity Medication: The increasing use of anti-obesity medication in both developed and developing countries will reduce food consumption, affecting the hospitality sector.

Clothing and Footwear

• Weaker Demand: Discretionary spending will be constrained, and tariffs along with the end of de minimis exemptions will limit demand for clothing and footwear.
• Consumer Shift: Price-conscious consumers will look for deals and used items, while luxury goods will remain resilient. However, wealthier consumers may shift to experiential luxury services like tours, cafes, and cruises.

Key Risks

Cybersecurity Threats

• Targeted Attacks: Online retailers will remain prime targets for hackers due to the large volume of customer and payment data.
• Impact: A major cyberattack could damage profits, lead to regulatory penalties, and affect small and medium businesses reliant on these platforms.

La Niña Weather Impact

• Agricultural Volatility: The La Niña weather pattern will cause price volatility in agricultural commodities.
• Regional Effects:
  • Latin America: Risks to corn, soybeans, sugar cane, and coffee.
  • Southeast Asia: Excessive rainfall and floods could impact rice and palm oil.
  • Southern US: Droughts may harm wheat and cotton.

Regulatory Compliance Costs

• EU Regulations: The EU will introduce new sustainability regulations, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which will increase compliance costs.
• Global Complexity: Retailers will also face new regulations on plastics, wood products, and food, alongside tariffs and trade barriers, adding to operational complexity.

Opportunities

AI in Retail

• GenAI Adoption: Big Tech companies and GenAI platforms like OpenAI and Perplexity are investing in AI tools to transform marketing and customer service.
• Strategic Use: Retailers will increasingly use predictive analytics and demand forecasting to improve brand presence and operational efficiency.

Contact Information

• London:
  Economist Intelligence
  The Adelphi
  1-11 John Adam Street
  London WC2N 6HT
  Tel: +44 (0)20 7576 8000
  Email: london@eiu.com

• New York:
  Economist Intelligence
  900 Third Avenue, 16th Floor
  New York, NY 10022
  Tel: +1 212 541 0500
  Email: americas@eiu.com

• Hong Kong:
  Economist Intelligence
  1301 Cityplaza Four
  12 Taikoo Wan Road
  Taikoo Shing
  Hong Kong
  Tel: +852 2585 3888
  Email: asia@eiu.com

• Dubai:
  Economist Intelligence
  PO Box No - 450056
  Office No - 1301A
  Aurora Tower
  Dubai Media City
  Tel: +971 4 4463 147
  Email: mea@eiu.com

Key Dates and Events

EIU Team

• Ana Nicholls: Director of Industry Analysis, leads healthcare and automotive analysis, with expertise in global economic and business development.
• Laveena Lyer: Senior Analyst, specialises in ICT, retailing, and Asia-Pacific markets, with a focus on mobile services, online retail, and regulatory changes.
• Tanya Bhatia: Research Analyst, focuses on global food and beverages trends, including the impact of tariffs and climate change.
• Aishwarya Tendolkar: Research Analyst, tracks US tariffs and provides insights on retail markets across 60 countries.

Conclusion

The 2026 consumer goods outlook highlights a mixed landscape of growth and challenges. While Asia continues to drive demand and China benefits from stimulus measures, the US and Europe face reduced consumer confidence due to trade wars, inflation, and regulatory changes. Online retail will adjust to new tariffs and cost structures, while food and clothing sectors will be impacted by price inflation, regulations, and shifting consumer preferences. AI integration and regulatory compliance will be key areas for strategic adaptation, and EIU offers data-driven insights and expert analysis to help businesses navigate these changes.