20251213-华泰期货-Macro_Weekly_report_FED_BS_Expansion_13页_1mb

FED BS Expansion Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current macroeconomic environment, focusing on the monetary and fiscal policies of major economies, including China and the United States, and highlights the implications of the Federal Reserve's bond purchase expansion. It also outlines key market strategies and potential risks that investors should be aware of.

Main Points

Domestic Policy

• Monetary Policy: A moderately loose monetary policy is expected for the coming year, with flexible use of tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts to enhance liquidity.
• Macro Policy: The principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" is emphasized, with the goal of improving quality and efficiency. Key initiatives include promoting investment recovery, stabilizing the real estate market, and formulating an income-increasing plan for urban and rural residents.
• Economic Data:
  • Exports: Increased by 5.9% yoy in November.
  • Imports: Rose by 1.9% yoy in November.
  • Passenger Car Sales: Fell by 8.5% yoy.
  • CPI: Rose by 0.7% yoy, the highest since March 2024.
  • PPI: Declined by 2.2% yoy.

Overseas Policy

• Fed: Restarted bond purchases, with a plan to buy $40 billion of short-term bonds. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps, with three votes against. Analysts suggest the Fed has "plenty of room" to cut rates further.
• RBA: Kept interest rates unchanged, with the next step likely to be a rate hike.
• SNB: Maintained interest rates at zero for the second consecutive time.
• BOJ: Governor indicated that the central bank is gradually approaching its sustained inflation target and may implement more than one rate hike in the future.

Market Strategy

• Global: USD is expected to turn neutral, and U.S. debt is also neutral.
• Domestic: Tactically flatten the yield curve by increasing short-term T2603 and decreasing long-term TS2603 (1-3 months). Strategically steepen the yield curve by increasing TS2603 and decreasing T2603 (3-6 months).

Key Information

Domestic Focus

• The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the formulation and implementation of an income-increasing plan for urban and rural residents.
• The core of the "national income doubling plan" is the combination of "growth + distribution", with a focus on fiscal, industrial, income and employment, and social security policies.
• The plan aims to stimulate business investment, improve infrastructure, create jobs, and ensure that wages grow in tandem with GDP.

Overseas Focus

• The Fed is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential.
• The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, but the pace is expected to be slow due to economic resilience and high debt levels.
• The long-term structural changes in the global economy may drive changes in regional spreads, particularly between China and Japan in 2025.

Risk Factors

• Geo-conflict: Potential escalation could impact global markets.
• Debt Risks: European and American debt risks remain a concern.
• Yen Appreciation: Risks associated with yen strengthening may affect capital flows.

Economic Calendar Highlights

• 12/15: Japanese Tankan Large Mfg Index, U.S. ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate, and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.
• 12/16: Japanese CPI, U.S. Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Retail Sales, and U.K. CPI.
• 12/17: U.S. CPI, U.S. Personal Expenditure, and U.S. Existing Home Sales.
• 12/18: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Core PCE Price Index, and U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook.
• 12/19: Total Net TIC Flows, Japanese CPI, U.K. Retail Sales, and U.S. Personal Income.

Macro Charts

• Figure3: Surprise & PMI data indicates market expectations and actual performance.
• Figure4: Inflation Surprise data shows the deviation of actual inflation from expectations.
• Figure5 & 6: CN and US Cycle charts provide insights into the economic cycles of China and the U.S.
• Figure7 & 8: CN and US CAPEX charts highlight capital expenditure trends.
• Figure9-13: Global PMI, Inflation, Consumption, Import, and Export Trends charts illustrate global economic conditions.
• Figure14: Global M2 Trends chart reflects the growth of broad money supply.
• Figure15-16: Rate Hike Probability and Market Implied Rate Change charts provide forecasts on interest rate movements.
• Figure17-18: Breakeven Inflation Rate and 5Y5Y Inflation Swap charts indicate inflation expectations.
• Figure19-26: HKD FRA, Swap, Deposit, HIBOR, and XCCY Basis charts reflect currency and interest rate market dynamics.

Researcher

• Name: Xu Wenyu
• Qualification Code: F0299877
• Advisory Code: Z0011454

Disclaimer

• This report is based on reliable and publicly available information.
• The Company does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• Opinions and forecasts are as of the date of publication and may change.
• The report is for reference only and does not replace independent judgment.
• The Company and the author are not liable for any consequences arising from reliance on the report.

Contact

• Investment Consulting License: [2011] No. 1289
• Company: Huatai Futures Co., Ltd.
• Corporate Headquarters: Room 1001-1004, 1011-1016, 10th Floor, No. 1 Mingzhu Third Street, Hengli Town, Nansha District, Guangzhou City
• Postal Code: 510000
• Telephone: 400-628-0888
• Website: www.htfc.com

Conclusion

The report outlines the current macroeconomic landscape, emphasizing the Fed's bond purchase expansion and the domestic income-increasing plan. It highlights the importance of monitoring global liquidity, interest rate differentials, and structural economic shifts. Investors are advised to pay close attention to upcoming economic data and central bank meetings, while being aware of the potential risks of geo-political conflict, debt, and currency appreciation.