2024-05-05-世界银行-盘点2024年4月_促进创新创业（英）_60页_3mb

Summary of the Document: Promoting Innovative Entrepreneurship in Viet Nam

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Viet Nam's recent economic developments and outlook, alongside a special focus on promoting innovative entrepreneurship. It is a report by the World Bank, highlighting both macroeconomic trends and the challenges and opportunities within the entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Main Economic Developments and Outlook

2023 Economic Performance

• GDP Growth Deceleration: Real GDP growth slowed to 5% in 2023 from 8% in 2022, due to a loss of momentum in exports, consumption, and private domestic investment.
• Export Performance: Exports contracted by 2.5% (y/y) in 2023, compared to 4.9% growth in 2022, primarily due to cooling demand from key markets.
• Net Exports Contribution: Despite the contraction in exports, net exports contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, as imports also fell sharply (-4.3% y/y).
• Labor Market Impact: Employment growth slowed, and real average monthly incomes stagnated, with manufacturing employment decreasing by 2.3% annually.
• Private Consumption: Slowed abruptly to 3.5% (y/y) in 2023 from 7.2% (y/y) in 2022.
• Private Investment: Decelerated to 2.8% (y/y), dragging down overall investment growth to 4.1% in 2023 from 5.8% in 2022.
• Industrial Sector: Grew at 3.7% in 2023, contributing 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, down from 7.8% in 2022.
• Services Sector: Grew at 6.8% in 2023, compared to 10% in 2022, due to moderating retail and wholesale trade.
• Agricultural Sector: Grew by 3.8% in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP.

2024 Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth Projection: Expected to grow by 5.5% in 2024, with manufacturing exports projected to grow at 3.5% (y/y).
• Real Estate Recovery: Expected to improve in late 2024 and into 2025, as the bond market freeze appears to have eased.
• Domestic Demand: Expected to strengthen as investors and consumers regain confidence, with real investment and real private consumption projected to grow by 5.5% and 5.0%, respectively.
• Inflation Trends: Projected to rise slightly from 3.2% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, with CPI moderation expected to 3.0% in 2025 and 2026.
• External Position: Improved in 2023 with a current account surplus of 6.7% of GDP, driven by a merchandise trade surplus of 10% of GDP, remittances of 3.1% of GDP, and a narrowing services trade deficit.
• Fiscal Policy: Moderately expansionary in 2023, with government revenue down by 5.4% and total expenditure up by 12.8%.
• Public Investment: Increased to 5.7% of GDP in 2023, but under-execution remained due to procedural bottlenecks.

Monetary Policy

• The State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) loosened monetary policy in 2023, reducing discount and refinancing rates by 150-200 basis points.
• Credit Growth: Slightly lower than the SBV's target at 13.7%, with asset quality deteriorating and non-performing loans (NPLs) rising to 4.55% of total loans.

Risks and Policy Implications

• Risks to Growth: Broadly balanced, with potential external demand slowdown from advanced economies and China, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disasters.
• Domestic Risks: Slower-than-forecast real estate recovery could affect investor sentiment and private investment.
• Financial Sector Stability: A key priority, as asset quality continues to worsen and capital buffers in some State-owned commercial banks are thin.
• Fiscal Policy: Expected to remain moderately supportive in 2024 but tighten in the outer years, with the fiscal deficit projected to widen to 1.6% of GDP in 2024 and then shrink to 1.1% and 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Promoting Innovative Entrepreneurship

Introduction

The report emphasizes the importance of innovative entrepreneurship in driving productivity growth and economic transformation, especially as traditional growth drivers lose momentum.

Key Challenges in the Entrepreneurial Ecosystem

• Low Public Support: The quality and level of public sector support for startups and innovative entrepreneurship are low, with an underdeveloped, underfunded, fragmented, and misaligned policy mix.
• Regulatory Barriers: Entrepreneurs and investors face regulatory challenges, including complex procedures for obtaining sub-licenses and unclear legal frameworks for certain business segments.
• Limited Talent Supply: While Viet Nam has a solid base of technical talent, there is a lack of skilled workers, mid-level managers, and C-level executives.
• Inadequate Training and Mentoring: Startup teams struggle with business development, product-market fit, and team-building, requiring better training, mentoring, and acceleration programs.
• Funding Gaps: Risk capital investments have grown, but funding gaps remain, especially for early-stage companies and knowledge/IP-based firms.
• Dependence on Foreign Capital: The risk capital market is heavily reliant on foreign funds, making it vulnerable to global shocks.

Policy Recommendations

• Reorient National Programs: Focus on building a pipeline of investment-ready, innovative startups, including upgrading support instruments for university incubators and innovation centers.
• Fast-Track Regulatory Reforms: Simplify procedures for inward and outward investments, especially for small innovative firms, and revise the Law on Domestic Investment Funds.
• Strengthen IP and Tech Transfer Frameworks: Modernize intellectual property (IP) and technology transfer systems, and enhance performance evaluations for research commercialization.
• Improve Public Research Contributions: Enhance technology transfer capabilities at key universities and public research institutions.
• Support Early-Stage Funding: Encourage angel investors and domestic participation in venture capital (VC) investments, addressing the lack of professionalization in the early-stage fund market.
• Strengthen Financial Sector Stability: Improve bank capital adequacy ratios, enhance prudential supervision, and address regulatory gaps in bank consolidation and bank resolution.
• Promote Structural Reforms: Implement reforms to green the economy, build human capital, and improve the business environment, particularly in information and communication technology (ICT), electricity, and transport.

Conclusion

The report underscores the necessity of promoting innovative entrepreneurship as a key driver for sustaining long-term growth in Viet Nam. It calls for policy reforms, regulatory improvements, and enhanced support mechanisms to foster a conducive entrepreneurial ecosystem and address existing gaps in the innovation and startup landscape.