2025-02-23-世界银行-中东和北非国家脱碳_政策影响的实证分析（英）_47页_1mb

1. Research Summary

This working paper analyzes the impact of decarbonization policies in MENA countries, focusing on alternatives such as fossil fuel subsidy reform and carbon pricing. Using a panel dataset of 41 countries, the study finds that oil subsidies in MENA oil producers significantly increase CO₂ emissions, primarily through energy consumption pathways and other channels like manufacturing. Flaring is identified as a key contributor to emissions for these producers.

The research assesses the interaction between subsidies and carbon taxes, highlighting that subsidy removal is more effective for modest carbon taxes but carbon taxes dominate for higher rates. Country-specific CPAT simulations show that subsidy removal improves government revenues and fiscal space, with minimal long-run growth impacts in most cases. MENA oil producers face a budget boost with a moderate carbon tax or subsidy cuts, though political sequencing considerations persist.

Reductions in fossil fuel subsidies are shown to reduce CO₂ emissions, with the effect being minimal in non-oil MENA countries like Egypt and Morocco due to smaller subsidy scales. The study advocates for subsidy reforms as a viable transitional policy toward decarbonization in the MENA region, supported by transparency and robust fiscal tools.

2. Key Findings Summary

• Oil Subsidies: Highly correlated with elevated CO₂ emissions in MENA oil producers, driven partly by energy-intensive consumption and manufacturing processes.
• Policy Effectiveness: Subsidy cuts outperform modest carbon taxes in CO₂ reduction; higher carbon taxes can surpass subsidies in effectiveness.
• Fiscal and Growth Impacts: Subsidy or carbon tax reforms enhance government budgets without harming long-run growth, supporting their feasibility.
• Country-Level Insights:
  • Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Egypt: Subsidy cuts reduce emissions significantly, with revenue gains surpassing those from carbon taxes.
  • Lebanon/Morocco: Carbon taxes dominate CO₂ reduction, with limited subsidies and small fiscal improvements.
• Flaring and Resource Rent: Significant in MENA oil exporters, contributing to emissions; higher global oil prices increase subsidy levels.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Accelerate subsidy reforms to drive decarbonization, especially in MENA oil producers where impacts are most pronounced.
• Complement subsidies with modest carbon taxes for enhanced environmental and fiscal outcomes.
• Leverage international evidence (EU/California/China) on policy sequencing, prioritizing subsidies in initial phases.
• Strengthen transparency in fossil fuel pricing to build credibility for climate policies.