2025-06-09-花旗集团-SCMC（600984）_上海建设机械（600984.SS）_未来可能仍多年亏损；维持卖出评级_15页_881kb

Citigroup Analysis and Recommendation for SCMC (600984.SS)

• Company Overview: SCMC is a China-based construction machinery company, specializing in manufacture, rental, and servicing of machinery, primarily through its subsidiary PY Rentals, the largest tower crane rental firm in China. Headquartered in Xian, it operates domestically and overseas.

• Investment Recommendation: Citigroup maintains a "Sell" rating on SCMC due to expected continued losses and flattower crane leasing rates.

• Key Reasons for Sell:

  • Expected "lower-for-longer" property sector outlook.
  • Net losses for three consecutive years (2022-2024), with projections showing losses persisting into 2025-2027.
  • Revised lower earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026.

• Financial Highlights:

  • Net profit: -9.88 billion Rmb in 2024, projected -779 million Rmb for 2025.
  • Negative net margin (-36.3%) in 2024, expected to remain low despite EPS growth in 2025E.
  • Target price reduced to RMB 2.60 from RMB 2.70, based on 0.9x 2025E P/B below average.

• Valuation and Comparison:

  • Forward P/B trends show declining multiples and EV/EBITDA rising due to losses.
  • Preferred alternatives: Sany Heavy (600031.SS) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) with higher target prices and growth potential.

• Risks: Downside risks include slower construction activity, weak property investment, and slower industry recovery.