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Consensus EBITDA Revisions for Midstream Companies in Negative Crude Price Environments (09 Jun 2025)

• Overview: Citigroup analyzes the impact of a 10% crude price decline since March, noting producer curtailments and midstream stock price dips but limited EBITDA estimate cuts (~0.4%).
• Key Findings: EBITDA estimates likely need further downward revisions due to planned rig cuts in 2025, despite current minimal cuts. Historical data shows average 8-11% revisions in past negative price environments, suggesting this cycle isn't over.
• Mitigating Factors: Midstream has reduced commodity exposure and better balance sheets; producers are more capitalized. This downturn is less severe than previous crises like COVID or OPEC price wars.
• Company-Specific Risks: Liquids-focused firms like TRGP and OKE face significant EBITDA cuts (10%+) in past downturns, expected here too, while gas-focused companies may benefit from demand growth.
• Policy Consideration: Despite revisions, opportunities may arise from gas demand and improved resilience, but risks remain due to price sensitivity and ongoing market volatility.