深度-兰德-美国与中国的战略竞争（英文）-2021.6-32页_262kb

U.S. Strategic Competition with China: A Summary

Core Content

The U.S. faces a long-term strategic competition with China, a near-peer great power, for the first time since the Cold War. This competition is characterized by a narrowing gap in national power, intensifying economic, technological, and diplomatic rivalry, and growing tensions over key flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. While the risk of a catastrophic war remains low, the competition has significant implications for the global order and international stability.

Main Points

• High Stakes in the Competition
  The U.S.-China competition is seen as a pivotal contest for shaping the future of the international system. Unlike the Cold War, where ideology played a central role, the current competition is driven by economics, technology, and diplomacy. China aims to reshape the international order to its advantage, while the U.S. seeks to maintain its leadership role.

• Central Roles of Economics, Diplomacy, and Technology
  Economic and technological competition are central to the U.S.-China rivalry. China's economic statecraft, including its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), enhances its global influence. The U.S. retains a lead in advanced semiconductors and AI, but China's growing capabilities in big data and military technology are a concern. Diplomacy plays a crucial role in both countries' strategies to secure their interests and influence global norms.

• U.S. Maintains Comprehensive National Power Advantage, but China is Closing the Gap
  While the U.S. continues to have significant advantages in alliances, partnerships, and global institutions, China is steadily narrowing this gap through economic and diplomatic efforts. Its growing influence in the Asia-Pacific and multilateral organizations highlights this shift.

• Erosion of U.S. Security Position in Asia
  The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is increasingly challenging the U.S. military presence in the region. China's advancements in anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, including ballistic missiles and cyber operations, threaten U.S. force projection. This has led to a security deficit, as the U.S. struggles to maintain its deterrent posture in the face of rising Chinese military power.

• Low Risk of Catastrophic War, but Growing Uncertainty
  Despite the rising tensions, the risk of a full-scale war between the U.S. and China remains low. However, the increasing complexity of the competition and the potential for miscalculation in crises raise concerns. RAND researchers have developed models to assess the likelihood of conflict based on factors such as power balance, military actions, and strategic miscalculations.

• Intensifying Struggle Through Measures Short of War
  Both countries are increasingly using non-military tactics, such as cyber operations, economic coercion, and gray zone strategies, to advance their interests. These tactics are seen as less risky than direct military conflict but still pose significant challenges. RAND has studied how the U.S. can respond to these operations to prevent escalation.

Key Information

• Economic Competition: China's economic strength and BRI are key tools for expanding its global influence. The U.S. is concerned about China's ability to shape trade and investment standards in its favor.
• Technological Rivalry: The U.S. leads in AI development due to its semiconductor advantage, while China excels in big data analytics. Both countries are investing heavily in advanced technologies.
• Diplomatic Influence: China is using economic leverage to build diplomatic relationships, while the U.S. relies on its global alliances to maintain influence. China's strategic ambitions include challenging the existing international order.
• Military Modernization: China is rapidly modernizing its military, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, which poses a challenge to U.S. security and regional dominance.
• Regional Leadership: The competition for leadership in the Indo-Pacific is a key driver of U.S.-China rivalry. Regional countries often prioritize economic ties with China over security concerns.
• Non-War Measures: Both nations are using hybrid and gray zone tactics to compete, which include cyber operations, economic pressure, and strategic coercion.

Major Themes

1. Competition for Regional Leadership: The U.S. and China are vying for dominance in the Indo-Pacific, with regional countries showing mixed preferences.
2. Competition for Global Influence: The rivalry extends beyond Asia, with both nations seeking to shape global norms and institutions.
3. China's Ambitious Military Modernization: China is enhancing its military capabilities, particularly in A2/AD systems, to challenge U.S. dominance.
4. Need to Bolster U.S. Security Position: The U.S. must invest more in its military and alliances to counter China's growing influence.
5. Intensifying Information, Cyber, and Space Competition: The competition is now expanding into the digital and space domains.
6. Importance of Cooperation Amid Competition: Despite rivalry, cooperation with allies and partners is essential to managing the competition effectively.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China strategic competition is a complex, multi-dimensional rivalry that spans economic, diplomatic, and military domains. While the risk of war remains low, the growing influence of China and the erosion of U.S. security advantages in Asia necessitate a comprehensive and adaptive approach to statecraft and defense. RAND research emphasizes the importance of understanding this competition through a broad lens, including the use of non-military measures, and highlights the need for the U.S. to maintain its global leadership while addressing the challenges posed by China's rise.