2021-05-31-兰德-美国与中国的战略竞争（英文）_32页_292kb

U.S. Strategic Competition with China: A RAND Research Summary

Core Content

The United States is now engaged in a long-term strategic competition with China, marking a shift from the Cold War era with the Soviet Union. This competition spans economic, diplomatic, and technological domains, and has significant implications for the future of the international order and global peace.

Main Points

1. High Stakes of the Competition

• The U.S.-China strategic competition is seen as a pivotal contest for shaping the international system.
• It is described as a "decisive" factor in determining the overall character of international competition.
• Unlike the Cold War, where ideology played a central role, the current competition is more about economic and technological influence.
• China is viewed as a "peer competitor" aiming to dominate the international order, while Russia is seen as a "rogue" state.

2. Economics, Diplomacy, and Technology as Central Pillars

• RAND researchers emphasize that economic and technological competition, rather than ideological conflict, define the current rivalry.
• China's economic statecraft, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a key tool for expanding its global influence.
• Technological leadership, especially in AI and big data, is critical for both nations.
• The U.S. retains a modest lead in AI due to its dominance in semiconductors, while China has a clear advantage in big data analytics.

3. U.S. Comprehensive National Power Still Strong, but China is Closing the Gap

• The U.S. maintains significant advantages in alliances, partnerships, and global institutions.
• China is steadily narrowing the gap in economic, military, and technological power.
• China seeks to renovate, rather than overthrow, the existing U.S.-led international order.
• Its influence in Asia is growing, particularly in Southeast Asia, Central and South Asia, and Oceania.

4. Erosion of U.S. Security Position in Asia

• The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is becoming a "pacing threat" in the Asia-Pacific.
• China's advancements in anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities challenge U.S. military dominance.
• The U.S. faces a "security deficit" due to insufficient defense spending and the increasing strain on its military resources.
• Tensions over issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea are rising, though the risk of full-scale war remains low.

5. Low Risk, but Growing Uncertainty of Catastrophic War

• While the likelihood of a full-scale war is low, the risk of escalation is high.
• Factors such as power shifts, serial militarized crises, and arms-racing behavior could increase the risk of conflict.
• The U.S. and China are increasingly using "gray zone" tactics, which involve actions below the threshold of conventional war, to achieve strategic goals.
• These tactics are difficult to detect and respond to, increasing the potential for miscalculation and misperception.

6. Managing Alliances and Partnerships as a Key Statecraft Challenge

• U.S. allies and partners in Asia are critical to maintaining regional stability and countering China's influence.
• RAND has studied how the U.S. can strengthen cooperation with allies to counter China's coercive actions.
• There is a need for greater coordination among regional powers, including Japan, India, and others, to address China's growing influence.

Key Themes

1. Competition for Regional Leadership

• The Indo-Pacific region is a focal point of U.S.-China rivalry.
• Regional countries prefer economic cooperation with the U.S. over military confrontation but are wary of China's influence.

2. Competition for Global Influence

• China is expanding its reach through economic and diplomatic means, challenging U.S. leadership in global institutions.
• The U.S. must adapt its strategy to maintain its position in a more fragmented international order.

3. Ambitious Military Modernization by China

• China's military modernization is a major driver of the competition, particularly in A2/AD capabilities.
• The PLA's growing ability to challenge U.S. military presence in the region raises concerns about U.S. strategic posture.

4. Need to Bolster U.S. Security Position

• The U.S. must invest more in its military and alliances to counter China's rising power.
• Strengthening defense capabilities and addressing the "security deficit" is essential to maintaining regional stability.

5. Intensifying Information, Cyber, and Space Competition

• The competition is no longer limited to traditional military domains but includes information warfare, cyber operations, and space.
• The U.S. must develop strategies to counter China's use of cyber coercion and information influence.

6. Importance of Cooperation Amid Competition

• Despite the rivalry, the U.S. and China occasionally cooperate on shared global challenges, such as maritime security and pandemic research.
• Collaboration in areas like counterterrorism and climate change could help reduce tensions and promote stability.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China strategic competition is complex and multifaceted, involving economic, diplomatic, and technological dimensions. While the U.S. remains the dominant global power, China is rapidly closing the gap. The competition is likely to be managed through non-military means, with a focus on alliances, gray zone tactics, and statecraft. RAND research highlights the need for a comprehensive and adaptive U.S. strategy to address the evolving nature of this rivalry.