2018年Q1全球软件市场展望（英文版）-2mb

GP Bullhound Q1 2018 Software Market Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the software market trends in Q1 2018, focusing on M&A activity, public market SaaS performance, key metrics, CEO commentary, and market valuations. It outlines the strategic direction of SaaS companies and highlights the impact of external factors such as market volatility and tax policy changes on the industry.

Key Sector Takeaways

• Software Consolidation Focus: Consolidators are increasingly targeting "growth acquisitions" rather than strategic ones.
• Acquisition Trends: SaaS companies with as little as $5 million of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) are attracting interest if they show growth of over 100%.
• M&A Strategy: Acquirers are less focused on build vs. buy decisions and are more interested in acquiring companies that can continue growing independently.
• Soft Landing Exits: Some start-ups are choosing to exit to strategies or private equity (PE) buyers rather than raise fresh capital or continue standalone growth.
• Market Volatility: Despite initial optimism, the IPO market in 2018 is expected to face volatility, which could impact valuations.

Recent Software Transaction Trends

• M&A Deal Value Increase: M&A activity is on the rise, driven by private equity firms.
• Larger Private Placements: There's a trend toward fewer but larger private placements.
• Geographic Dominance: The US and Europe continue to dominate M&A deal volume.
• Consistent Regional Activity: Private placement deal volume remains consistent across regions.

Public Market SaaS Analyses

• Notable IPOs in 2017: Several SaaS companies successfully went public in 2017, including Alteryx, Appian, Cloudera, MongoDB, Okta, and Yext.
• Performance of 2017 IPOs: These companies showed strong growth and valuation performance, with some experiencing significant price increases post-IPO.
• 2018 Outlook: The SaaS IPO market in 2018 is expected to be less robust due to market volatility and fewer large-scale SaaS companies ready to go public.

Key SaaS Metrics

• Revenue Growth: SaaS companies are experiencing varying levels of revenue growth, with some showing high growth rates (e.g., 59% for Alteryx).
• Subscription Revenue: Subscription revenue is a dominant component for most SaaS companies, with some exceeding 95% of total revenue.
• Net Retention Rate: Companies like Okta and Yext show strong net retention rates, indicating customer loyalty.
• Customer Growth: Many SaaS companies have seen significant YoY customer growth.
• ARR Expansion Rate: Companies such as MongoDB and Cloudera have impressive ARR expansion rates.
• Cost Trends: Customer acquisition costs have risen significantly, impacting margins and sales strategies.

SaaS CEO Commentary

• Strategic Shifts: CEOs are increasingly focusing on platform-based solutions and customization.
• Challenges: Rising competition and saturated sales channels are posing challenges to growth and margin optimization.
• Opportunities: The shift to PaaS and the potential for growth through strategic acquisitions are key opportunities.

Appendix A: GP Bullhound SaaS Index

• Market Valuations: The SaaS Index shows a range of valuations, with an average EV/Revenue of 8.9x and a median of 8.4x.
• Revenue Multiple Trends: Current valuations are in line with the mean of the past five years, indicating a stable market environment.
• Rule of 40%: The Rule of 40% highlights that public SaaS companies are expected to see lower growth and profitability in 2018 compared to 2017.

Appendix B: Software Public Comps by Category

• Valuation Multiples: Companies in different categories have varying EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples.
• Performance Metrics: Metrics such as revenue growth, profit margins, and share price performance are used to compare companies across categories.

Appendix C: GP Bullhound Software Report Overview, Software Credentials & Team

• Report Overview: The report is produced by GP Bullhound, a firm specializing in software market analysis.
• Credentials: The firm has a strong track record in analyzing and advising on SaaS and software transactions.
• Team: The team comprises experienced professionals with deep knowledge of the software industry.

Notable Software M&A Deals & Private Financings

M&A Transactions (Q1 2018)

Private Financings (Q1 2018)

Global Software Transaction Trends

• M&A Activity: M&A deal value is increasing, primarily driven by private equity.
• Private Placements: Larger private placements are still occurring, indicating a shift in investment strategies.
• Geographic Dominance: The US and Europe continue to lead in M&A deal volume.
• Regional Consistency: Private placement deal volume remains consistent across regions.

Software IPOs in 2017

• Successful IPOs: Companies like Alteryx, Appian, Cloudera, MongoDB, Okta, and Yext saw strong performance in their IPOs.
• 2018 Outlook: The IPO market is expected to be less robust due to market volatility and fewer large-scale SaaS companies.

GP Bullhound SaaS Index Market Valuations

• Market Cap Values: The SaaS Index shows a range of market cap values, with an average of 8.9x EV/Revenue and a median of 8.4x.
• Trends: Current valuations align with the mean of the past five years, indicating a stable market environment.

Rule of 40% – Public SaaS

• 2018E Growth and Profitability: Public SaaS companies in the GPB Index are expected to show lower growth and profitability in 2018 compared to 2017.
• Comparison: The Rule of 40% highlights the shift in performance expectations as companies mature.

Software Public Company Valuations

High Growth (2018 Revenue Growth Rate >30%)

Average and Median Valuations

Conclusion

The Q1 2018 software market report highlights the increasing focus on growth acquisitions, the impact of market volatility on IPOs, and the trend toward platform-based solutions. It also provides a detailed analysis of public market SaaS valuations, key metrics, and notable M&A and private financing activities, emphasizing the importance of strategic decisions and market dynamics in shaping the future of the software industry.