2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Former_Yugoslav_Republic_of_Macedonia_First_Review_Under_the_Precautionary_Credit_Line_37页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: First Review Under the Precautionary Credit Line

Core Content

The document outlines the First Review Under the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia), conducted by the IMF in August 2011. It summarizes the economic developments, policy discussions, qualification criteria, and program modalities of the country during the period leading up to the review.

Main Points

1. Economic Recovery and Outlook

The economic recovery is slowly gaining pace.
Political developments: The ruling coalition retained a parliamentary majority in the June 5 general elections, with the new government led by Prime Minister Gruevski.
Growth: Expected to rise to 3 percent in 2011, driven by domestic demand.
Inflation: Projected to be 4 to 4.5 percent in 2011, up from 1.6 percent in 2010, mainly due to food and fuel prices.
Current Account Deficit: Expected to widen to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2011, financed by FDI.
International Reserves: Net reserves stood at €1.44 billion in May 2011, above the indicative target.
Banking Sector: Remains sound, with capital adequacy ratio at 17 percent and non-performing loans beginning to decline.

2. Policy Developments

PCL Purchase: The authorities purchased SDR 197 million (286 percent of quota) in March 2011 due to reduced market access and higher risks from the early elections.
Fiscal Deficit: The 2011 deficit target of 2.5 percent of GDP was slightly missed, with a deficit of 1.4 percent.
2012 Budget: Focuses on investment spending, with a target deficit of 2.2 percent.
Debt Management: Authorities agreed to improve debt management practices, including issuing external debt in the fall to meet 2011 and 2012 financing needs.
Debt Strategy: The new government reaffirmed its commitment to the PCL-supported program, and plans to repay the PCL purchase early if market conditions allow.

3. Monetary Policy and International Reserves

The policy interest rate remains at 4 percent, with staff support for this level.
International Reserves: The indicative target for end-November was increased by €50 million, and the reserve level is considered broadly adequate.
The NBRM is committed to maintaining the de facto peg against the euro and ensuring exchange rate stability.

4. Financial Sector Policies

The financial sector is sound, with healthy capital ratios and liquidity buffers.
Legal and regulatory reforms are being pursued to address court challenges and enhance supervision.
A Financial Stability Council has been established to improve contingency planning.
The NBRM is reviewing liquidity requirements, aiming to maintain conservative buffers without hindering private sector lending.

5. Qualification Criteria

Macedonia continues to meet the qualification criteria for the PCL.
Fiscal policies remain sound, with a moderate deficit and debt sustainability.
Monetary policy supports exchange rate stability and low inflation.
External position: While the current account deficit is expected to widen, it is financed by FDI, keeping reserves adequate.
Data adequacy: The authorities have committed to subscribe to SDDS and are working on a roadmap for data dissemination by November 2012.

Key Information

PCL Arrangement: Approved on January 19, 2011, with an initial access of 500 percent of quota (SDR 344.5 million).
Second Year Access: Additional 100 percent of quota (SDR 68.9 million) is available.
Reserve Level: As of May 2011, net reserves were €1.44 billion, above the indicative target.
Debt Management Reform: A roadmap for reform is being developed, with a structural benchmark for the second PCL review.
IMF Technical Assistance: A technical assistance mission is planned for the early fall to support debt management improvements.
Safeguards: The NBRM has strengthened its governance and risk management framework.
Review Timing: The first review was delayed due to the elections, and access to PCL resources lapsed on July 19, to be restored after the review is completed.

Conclusion

The IMF staff recommends that the Executive Board complete the first review under the PCL arrangement, as Macedonia continues to meet the qualification criteria and perform in line with the program. The new government has reaffirmed its commitment to the economic program, and the country remains on track for fiscal and monetary stability. The focus on improving debt management and data adequacy is seen as essential for long-term sustainability and market confidence.