2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Poland_Review_Under_the_Flexible_Credit_Line_Arrangement_51页_2mb

IMF Country Report No. 16/12: Republic of Poland

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its review of Poland's performance under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement on January 13, 2016, reaffirming Poland's continued qualification for FCL resources. In response to the Polish authorities' request, the access was reduced from SDR 15.5 billion (918 percent of quota) to SDR 13 billion (770 percent of quota), reflecting improved economic fundamentals and a lower risk profile.

Main Points

1. Economic Fundamentals and Performance

• Economic Resilience: Poland's economy has remained resilient despite increased global financial volatility, supported by strong fundamentals and effective policy frameworks.
• Growth and Unemployment: Economic growth has been robust, and unemployment has been declining, with private consumption and credit expansion contributing significantly to growth.
• Inflation Trends: Deflation has bottomed out, and inflation has started to rise, moving closer to the target range of 1.5–3.5 percent.
• Current Account: The current account deficit has narrowed from 2 percent of GDP in 2014 to around 0.5 percent in 2015, supported by low oil prices and continued low energy import costs.
• Reserves: International reserves have remained broadly adequate, with a level of EUR 93 billion (USD 98 billion) at end-November 2015, well above the median for emerging markets.

2. Fiscal and Monetary Policies

• Fiscal Consolidation: Fiscal consolidation has led to Poland's exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), and public debt is considered sustainable.
• Budget Deficit: The 2016 budget targets a general government deficit of 2.8 percent of GDP, with a commitment to maintain the deficit below 3 percent in 2017 and resume fiscal consolidation in 2018 at a pace of at least 0.25 percent of GDP per year.
• Monetary Policy: The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) lowered the main policy interest rate by 100 basis points between October 2014 and March 2015 to support inflation. The rate has since been held steady, with inflation expectations rising.
• Inflation Targeting: Poland's credible inflation targeting regime has been effective in managing deflationary pressures.

3. Financial Sector Stability

• Banking Sector: The banking system remains liquid, profitable, and well-capitalized. The capital adequacy ratio was around 15.5 percent in the third quarter of 2015.
• Macroprudential Framework: A macroprudential framework has been finalized to detect and prevent systemic risks, and a law on covered bonds has been approved to support stable funding.
• Foreign-Currency Exposure: The financial sector has significant foreign-currency exposure, particularly in mortgages denominated in Swiss francs. Measures have been taken to mitigate risks, including case-by-case restructuring of distressed FX-denominated mortgages and boosting capital for banks with high FX exposure.

4. Risks and Outlook

• External Risks: While some risks have receded, they remain elevated due to uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy tightening and potential adverse developments in key emerging markets.
• Euro Area and U.S. Policy: The ECB's quantitative easing has reduced some euro area-related risks, but U.S. interest rate hikes and EM volatility have increased risks.
• Downside Risks: Risks related to a slowdown in China and other large EMs have emerged, though Poland's strong fundamentals and reserve buffers mitigate these risks.
• Outlook: The outlook for 2015 and the medium term is for continued robust growth and a gradual pickup in inflation, supported by domestic demand.

5. FCL Arrangement

• Purpose: The FCL serves as a precautionary tool to provide insurance against external risks.
• Access Reduction: The reduction in FCL access to SDR 13 billion reflects the improved fundamentals and lower risks.
• Exit Strategy: The authorities intend to treat the FCL as precautionary and gradually exit from the arrangement as external risks subside.

Key Information

• IMF Transparency Policy: The IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information in published reports.
• Quota and Access: Poland's quota is SDR 1,688.40 million (about €2,154.2 million). The FCL access is SDR 13 billion, which is 770 percent of the quota.
• FCL Approval History: Poland's first FCL arrangement was approved on May 6, 2009, and subsequent arrangements on July 2, 2010; January 21, 2011; and January 18, 2013.
• IMF FCL Description: The FCL is a renewable credit line available to countries with strong fundamentals and policies. It is used for crisis prevention and has no cap on access.
• Review and Recommendations: The IMF staff report reaffirmed Poland's qualification for FCL access and recommended completion of the review.

Summary of the Staff Report

• The report highlights Poland's strong economic performance and policy frameworks.
• It emphasizes the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and financial stability.
• The FCL is seen as a useful tool for managing external risks, especially given Poland's openness to global markets.
• The authorities are committed to a gradual exit from the FCL, with the aim of reducing reliance on external support as risks decline.

Conclusion

Poland's economic fundamentals and policy frameworks remain robust, and the country has successfully managed external shocks through the FCL arrangement. The reduction in FCL access reflects improved resilience and the authorities' intention to exit the arrangement gradually as conditions allow. The IMF staff continues to support Poland's efforts to maintain strong and sustainable policies.