2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Former_Yugoslav_Republic_of_Macedonia_Staff_Report_for_the_2011_Article_IV_Consultation_61页_1mb

2011 Article IV Consultation Summary: Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Core Content

The 2011 Article IV consultation report for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia) outlines the country's economic performance, policy discussions, and medium-term outlook in the context of the euro area crisis. The report was finalized in May 2012 and reflects the views of the IMF staff, not the Executive Board. It includes a Staff Report, an Informational Annex, a Public Information Notice (PIN), and a Statement by the Executive Director.

Main Points and Key Information

Economic Context and Performance

• Economic Recovery: The recovery slowed in 2011 due to worsening external conditions, particularly the euro area crisis.
• Growth and Inflation:
  • 2011 GDP growth was 3%, with a sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter (0.2%).
  • Inflation is expected to decline from 3.9% in 2011 to 2% in 2012, driven by lower food and fuel price pressures.
  • The real exchange rate is considered fairly valued based on CGER estimates and wage levels.
• Unemployment: High unemployment, which predates independence, remains a challenge. It has decreased from 37% to 32% over the past decade but is still a drag on growth.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit:
  • The 2011 fiscal deficit was 2.6% of GDP (cash basis), due to reduced spending and lower-than-expected revenue.
  • The 2012 budget targets a 2.5% deficit but is based on optimistic revenue assumptions.
• Fiscal Challenges:
  • The government needs to reduce expenditure growth to meet the 2012 deficit target, even beyond the supplementary budget cuts.
  • A key challenge is balancing increased public investment and wages with debt sustainability and low tax rates.
• Public Finance:
  • The government secured a €130 million loan backed by a World Bank guarantee to meet fiscal needs for 2012 and 2013.
  • A €221 million PLL purchase in March 2011 was a major source of financing.
• Arrears:
  • The government had arrears of €7.6 million to an external supplier and €8 million in VAT refunds.
  • These arrears totaled 0.2% of GDP, though actual figures may be higher due to late payments reported by businesses.

Monetary and Financial Policies

• Monetary Policy:
  • The National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) kept interest rates unchanged from December 2010 to April 2012.
  • It eased prudential requirements to support credit growth and stabilize the exchange rate peg.
• Interest Rate Adjustments:
  • In April 2012, the NBRM introduced measures to ease credit conditions, including reducing the maximum interest rate on CB-bills to 3.75%.
  • A deposit facility and repurchase operations were introduced to improve liquidity in the money market.
• Exchange Rate Peg:
  • The central bank's overriding objective is to maintain the stability of the de facto euro peg.

Financial Sector

• Sector Soundness:
  • The banking sector is generally sound, with a capital adequacy ratio of ~17% (tier 1 at ~14%) as of December 2011.
  • The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 9.5%, down from its 2010 peak of over 10%.
• Exposure to Euro Area:
  • Two of the three largest banks have euro area parent companies (Greece and Slovenia), but they do not rely heavily on external financing.
  • A deeper euro area crisis could lead to deposit outflows and pressure on reserves.

Growth and Investment

• Growth Strategy:
  • The government's strategy focuses on boosting infrastructure and education, preserving low taxes, and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI).
  • The goal is to raise potential growth to above 4% and reduce unemployment.
• FDI Trends:
  • Greenfield FDI has shifted from traditional sectors (food, metal processing) to higher value-added industries like automotive components.
  • A large pipeline of FDI projects is expected for 2012–2015, with a focus on the automotive sector.
  • FDI is expected to remain a key driver of growth, but some projects may be delayed due to financial stress in Europe.

External Sector

• Current Account Deficit:
  • The current account deficit was 2.8% of GDP in 2011 and is expected to widen to around 5% of GDP in the medium term.
  • It will be financed mainly by FDI, with private transfers expected to normalize from their 2011 peak of 19.5% of GDP.
• Export Performance:
  • Exports to the euro area account for about 50% of total exports.
  • A slowdown in the euro area is expected to reduce export demand and FDI inflows, impacting growth.
• International Reserves:
  • Reserves increased significantly, ending the year at 114% of short-term debt by residual maturity and over 4 months of prospective imports.
  • Reserves were considered broadly adequate.

Risks

• Euro Area Crisis:
  • A deeper recession or intensified financial stress in the euro area could reduce exports, remittances, and FDI, pushing the economy into recession and straining reserves.
  • It could also undermine confidence in the exchange rate peg, leading to deposit outflows.
• Greek Scenario:
  • Adverse developments in Greece could damage confidence in its bank subsidiaries in Macedonia, potentially causing deposit outflows.
• Data Quality:
  • Economic and financial data are generally adequate, with the authorities subscribing to SDDS.
  • Some gaps remain, particularly in the quality of quarterly GDP data and fiscal data on public enterprises.

Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Policy and Financing:
  • The government needs to reduce expenditure growth to meet the 2012 deficit target.
  • A key challenge is balancing increased public investment and wages with debt sustainability and low taxes.
  • Strengthening fiscal institutions is essential for better medium-term expenditure prioritization and budget execution.
• Monetary Policy:
  • The NBRM eased monetary policy in response to a slowing economy, but the exchange rate peg remains a central concern.
  • The central bank is expected to raise interest rates in a downside scenario to protect reserves and the peg.
• Financial Sector:
  • The authorities intensified financial sector monitoring and contingency planning in response to euro area stress.
  • Vigilance is needed due to the presence of large euro area bank subsidiaries in Macedonia.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff appraisal highlights the need for structural reforms to raise potential growth and reduce unemployment.
• It emphasizes the importance of improving education and property rights, as well as judicial reform.
• The government's strategy to attract FDI and improve the business climate is seen as appropriate.

Conclusion

The 2011 Article IV consultation underscores the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, addressing fiscal and financial challenges, and pursuing structural reforms to boost growth and employment. While the euro area crisis poses risks, Macedonia's relatively modest external linkages and strong FDI pipeline provide some resilience. The report also highlights the need for continued efforts to improve data quality and fiscal transparency.