2025-06-11-Jefferies-SNEC_2025第二天会议反馈_9页_127kb

Equity Research Summary: China Alternative Energy Market

Key Findings & Company Highlights

1. SNEC 2025 Conference Day 2

• Deeper discussions focused on supply-side reforms amid US tariffs and strategic partnerships.
• Debates revolved around tech innovation, IP rights, battery formats, and PV cell technologies.

2. Analyst Coverage

Sungrow

• Tariffs: With reduced reciprocal tariffs to 30%, expected US ESS shipment of 8GWh in 2025.
• Market Views:
  • Utility ESS market: Maintains ~20% share.
  • C&I ESS: Impressive growth in EU; estimates increased to 4-5 GWh, previously 3 GWh.
• ESS Economics:
  • Tariff absorbed 50/50 for pre-tariff orders; GPM expected to drop by ~10%.
  • Labor costs influence installation/passive spending dynamics.
• Opportunities:
  • Power market liberalization may increase volatility, driving ESS adoption.
• Valuation: RMB83.69 (Buy), P/E:15 (with 10% discount due to stabilized growth).

CSI Solar

• ESS Strategy: Targets 7-9 GWh shipments, 2-3 GWh from US, 5-6GWh from UK, Canada, Australia.
• Pricing: Competitive module prices, foreign modules commanding USD0.02-0.03/W premium.
• Focus: Robust US demand outlook for PV at near 50GW, cautious ESS growth.
• Financials: Reduced impairment expected compared to FY24.
• Valuation: RMB16.37 (Buy), 17× FY25E P/E.

Aiko

• ABC Module Impact: Triple-digit shipment growth (aiming 4GW shipment in 2025 quarter vs. 4.5GW in 2025), targeting overall 20GW by year-end.
• Technology: ABC modules at ~RMB1/W ASP, beating TOPCon modules (~RMB0.8/W).
• BC Cell Cost: Projected capex reduction; RMB0.15-0.16/W non-silicon costs with automation.
• Operations: 40% international shipments (elevated to EU mixture of 70-80%).
• Valuation Noted: A++ performance in recent quarter.

JA Solar

• Cell Focus: TOPCon, non-silicon cost ~RMB0.13-0.14/W.
• UTR: At 70%, impacted by sluggish post-boom demand.
• Shipments: Guide at 60GW annually; aim to maintain ~10% US market share.
• Risks: PrepaidAccounting (AP days) risk for peers; volatile input costs.
• Valuation: RMB13.28 (Buy), 13× FY27E PE.

Trina

• Module Situation: UTRs improved post-inventory restocking, shipments expected at 18-20GW in 2025 Q2.
• ESS Plans: Build-out target of 8-10 GWh ESS in 2025, targeting breakeven/positive NP next year, 30%+ overseas penetration by 2025.
• Geography: Focus on EPC with MENA, EU, Latin America markets.
• Valuation: RMB21.71 (Buy), 12× FY27E PE.

GCL Tech: Not Covered. NOC (Not Covered by analyst)

3. Investment Risks & Opportunities

• Top Tier Companies (Buy):
  • All 4 (Sungrow, CSI Solar, JA Solar, Trina) focus on the growing ESS competitiveness and Europe module strength.
  • Price volatility and cutting-edge IP battles are core themes.

4. Analyst Disclaimers & Ratings

Valuation Metrics:

• CSI Solar: PEM x17, PT16.37
• JA Solar: PE x13 (2027 est.), PT13.28
• Sungrow: PE x15 (2026), PT83.69
• Trina: PE x12 (2027), PT21.71

Coverage Histograms: Majority of analyst ratings are "Buy" (60.47%).