2025-06-11-Jefferies-2025年SNEC第一天会议反馈_9页_121kb

报告摘要

General sentiment is cautious due to domestic demand plummeting after a rush-to-installation phase before May 31. Forward prices face pressure from demand decline, but companies with overseas exposure fare better.
Factors include ongoing power market reforms, regional disparities in energy development, and increased RE consumption targets. Despite challenges from Notice 136, long-term RE growth (>13.5tn kWh by 2030) supports development, with green hydrogen stimulating installations. Thermal power deceleration and grid-related policies ease installation burdens for utility PV projects.

Experts highlight significant provincial variations in PV installation and electricity mechanisms. For instance, Guangdong's spot tariffs in peak hours (up to RMB0.6/kWh) improve IRR for PV projects, while the additionality of mechanism electricity volume varies.
Guangdong may cancel peak-valley tariff policies at user end, potentially widening daily tariff differences and boosting ESS IRR. Annual 2026 tariff expectations in Guangdong are pessimistic, with a potential decrease to RMB0.372/kWh.

Benchmark prices from SMM for N-type poly (CPIA) are RMB36-37/kg and RMB0.701/W, with tight supply leading to reduced inventories. Output quotas and inventories are monitored closely, with risks of price declines due to elevated inventories.
Wafer sector faces issues like lower utilizations and production adjustments, particularly with technologies like M10L being reduced, opting for G12R instead.
SMM forecasts lower PV installations this year (245-260GW) compared to prior estimates, with weak 4Q demand due to tariff uncertainties outweighing price cuts.

Global ESS demand is strong, with China, US, and EU leading markets. EU's variable tariffs and power outages fuel C&I ESS uptake, while US grid issues drive utility ESS demand, expected to remain strong for at least three years.
China's potential high peak-valley tariffs (e.g., RMB0.6/kWh) can yield decent ESS IRR, maintaining market appeal.

Drinda (002865 CH): Strategic international expansions planned to address US trade barriers, while cautious domestic conditions lead to phasing out underperformers. Overseas markets (India, Turkey) account for major shipments.
Jinko Solar (JKS US, Buy): Targets capacity upgrades (40-50GW by YE25) with advanced tech, aiming higher efficiency and IRR. US shipments face tariff risks, prompting capacity discussions abroad.
Daqo (DQ US, Buy): Maintains high poly output with inflated inventories impacting prices. Wafer underutilizations signal potential production adjustments and risks for tier-1 players.
HZ First (603806 CH, Buy): Overseas growth accelerates, with higher margins and PV film market share increases. Upside from emerging markets counters US installation risks.

JinkoSolar: Fair value estimate of USD62.01 based on 7x FY26 PE, reflecting normalized NPM. Risks include NYSE volatility, upstream price hikes, installation declines, and trade barriers.
Daqo New Energy: Base case price target RMB29.96 on 10x FY25 PE, contingent on poly price normalization. Downstream utilizations and installation shortfalls are key risks.
Overall equity risks include supply chain margins, market sentiment shifts, and currency exposures in overseas operations.

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