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2021 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour Dynamics and Employment Policies for Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery

Core Content

The 2021 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), focuses on labour dynamics and employment policies necessary for a sustainable and inclusive recovery beyond the COVID-19 crisis. It analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, global liquidity trends, external sector performance, domestic economic indicators, and macroeconomic policies, while also addressing the specific challenges faced by women and youth in the region's labour markets and the future of work in the context of technological innovation and automation.

Main Views

Regional Economic Overview (Part I)

• The global economy experienced its worst downturn since the 1930s in 2020, with a -3.2% contraction, but is expected to grow by ~6% in 2021.
• World trade is recovering strongly, with the WTO forecasting 8% growth in 2021, driven by improved global economic activity and pandemic control measures.
• Commodity prices have risen sharply, with an expected 38% increase in 2021, impacting Latin America and the Caribbean differently.
• Financial markets have been supported by fiscal stimulus, monetary expansion, and progress in vaccination.
• Inflation has risen in developed countries, influencing sovereign bond yields, particularly in the United States.
• The external sector of Latin America and the Caribbean reported a small surplus in 2020, but is expected to face a deficit in 2021, though smaller than the pre-crisis average.
• Exchange rates have been volatile, and international reserves have played a critical role in maintaining monetary policy space.
• Macroeconomic policies have been expansionary, but monetary and fiscal flexibility may be constrained during the recovery.

Labour Market Impact (Part II)

• The pandemic caused the worst labour market crisis in the region since 1950, with a sharp decline in employment and participation.
• Unemployment rates reached their highest level since 1990, and informal employment did not serve as a buffer, instead showing greater volatility than formal employment.
• Labour market recovery is expected to be slow, with employment and participation levels still below 2019 levels.
• The recovery has been biased towards lower-quality jobs, with informal employment and jobs for less-educated workers declining sharply.
• The gender gap has deepened, with women's employment and labour force participation being more severely impacted.
• Youth unemployment is three times higher than adult unemployment, and they are more likely to be in the informal sector.

Future of Work and Policy Challenges

• Technological substitution and automation pose significant challenges to the region's labour markets.
• New technologies are creating new occupations, but also displacing traditional jobs.
• Digital platform work has increased during the pandemic but fails to meet decent work criteria.
• Remote work has become more common, but access is uneven, and regulation is needed to ensure fair working conditions.
• Policies must focus on job creation, fiscal support, credit policies, and social protection to ensure a transformative recovery.
• Closing the digital divide and improving regulation are critical to addressing innovation and automation challenges.
• Labour market regulations must be adapted to support inclusive employment processes and protect workers in the new economy.

Key Information

• The economic recovery in 2021 is expected to slow in 2022, with a projected growth rate of 5.9% for 2021 and 2.9% for 2022.
• Inflation in Latin America has increased, with non-core inflation (especially in food prices) being the main driver.
• Public debt remains high, but sovereign risk is declining.
• Central banks have used unconventional measures to stimulate demand, but interest rates have started to rise in some countries.
• Country-specific notes and statistical annexes provide detailed economic indicators, employment data, and policy measures taken during the pandemic.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhance fiscal and monetary policies to support sustainable recovery.
• Strengthen social protection for women and youth, who were most affected by the pandemic.
• Adapt labour regulations to address the challenges of technological change and automation.
• Improve access to digital tools and regulate digital platform work to ensure decent work conditions.
• Promote inclusive employment and support job creation in sectors that can offer better quality jobs.
• Monitor and manage financial risks to sustain macrofinancial stability.

Conclusion

The 2021 Economic Survey emphasizes the need for inclusive and sustainable employment policies to address the deepening inequalities and structural challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean. It highlights the importance of macroeconomic stability, social protection, and technological adaptation in ensuring a resilient and equitable recovery.