拉丁美洲经济委员会-《2021年拉丁美洲和加勒比经济概览》：新冠疫情后可持续和包容性复苏的劳工动态和就业政策（英）-2021.10-263页_7mb

2021 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour Dynamics and Employment Policies for Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery

Core Content

The 2021 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), examines the economic and labour market impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and outlines employment policies for a sustainable and inclusive recovery.

Main Views

Regional Overview

• The pandemic has exposed significant disparities in how different countries responded to the crisis.
• The world economy experienced its worst downturn since the 1930s, with a -3.2% contraction in 2020.
• Growth is expected to rebound to nearly 6% in 2021, though a slowdown to 2.9% is anticipated in 2022.
• World trade volume is recovering strongly, with the WTO forecasting 8% growth in 2021.
• Commodity prices are rising, with an average increase of 38% in 2021.
• Financial markets have been supported by improved global economic activity, fiscal stimulus, and pandemic control efforts, particularly in the US and Europe.
• Inflation has risen in developed countries, affecting sovereign bond yields, especially in the US.
• The balance of payments current account is expected to show a deficit in 2021, though smaller than the pre-crisis average.
• The goods trade surplus is expected to weaken due to higher import growth than export growth.
• Average terms of trade are expected to improve in Latin America, but the Caribbean and Central America will face challenges due to higher energy prices.
• The services deficit is likely to worsen due to ongoing restrictions on international tourism and increased demand for transport and other services.
• The income balance deficit is expected to rise, while the transfer balance, mainly from remittances, will show a higher surplus.
• Financial inflows to the region have increased due to better global conditions and lower risk aversion.
• The region's debt issuance on international markets has increased, especially in the corporate sector.
• Sovereign risk in the region is decreasing, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

Domestic Performance

• The pandemic's prolonged duration and intensity have prevented a strong economic recovery.
• The crisis has impacted both supply and demand, leading to reduced economic activity, employment, and real wages.
• The economic impact varies by sector, with the most significant contractions in employment-intensive areas.
• Consumption continues to decline, while investment is the only component contributing positively to GDP growth.
• Inflation has increased since 2020, with non-core inflation, especially in food, being the main driver.
• Core inflation remains below pre-crisis levels.
• Labour market indicators have partially recovered in 2021, but they are still below 2019 levels, and the gender gap has deepened.
• Employment recovery is uneven across sectors, with construction regaining previous levels, while accommodation and restaurants remain contracted.
• The recovery is biased towards lower-quality jobs.
• Informal employment and jobs among less-educated workers have contracted significantly, highlighting the limitations of traditional employment quality indicators.

Macroeconomic Policies

• Tax revenue has increased in 2021, but uncertainty remains.
• Public expenditures are generally expected to decrease.
• Fiscal balances in Latin America are projected to strengthen due to higher revenues and lower spending.
• Public debt remains at historically high levels.
• Central banks have adopted an expansionary monetary policy, but the space for maintaining such policies is shrinking.
• The easing of price pressures in 2020 allowed for monetary stimulus, but recent inflation increases have constrained this space.
• The pace of monetary aggregate expansion has slowed in 2021.
• Monetary policies have led to lower lending rates and a credit recovery in 2020, but this effect has diminished over time.
• Exchange rates have been volatile due to international financial market fluctuations.
• International reserves management has been crucial for preserving monetary policy space and ensuring macrofinancial stability.
• Macroprudential measures and capital flow regulations are now key tools for mitigating macrofinancial risks and stabilizing exchange rates.

Labour Market Impact and Recovery

• The pandemic triggered the worst labour market crisis in the region since 1950, with a significant drop in employment and participation.
• The unemployment rate reached its highest level since 1990 in 2020.
• Informal employment did not act as a buffer but fluctuated more than formal employment.
• The recovery is expected to be slow, with employment and participation levels still below 2019.
• The crisis may accelerate structural changes in the labour market.
• Unemployment rates are projected to rise, reflecting insufficient job creation.
• Employment quality has deteriorated, with real wages declining.

Impact on Women and Youth

• Female employment and participation dropped sharply in 2020, highlighting the gender gap in the region.
• Women's participation in the labour market has been gradually increasing since the 1990s, but disparities persist.
• The creation of gender-equal employment opportunities is essential for a more inclusive recovery.
• The youth population is growing more slowly but remains a significant portion of the total population.
• Youth unemployment is three times higher than adult unemployment, with many working in the informal sector.
• The pandemic disproportionately affected young people.
• Structural and institutional barriers hinder full youth participation in the labour market.

New Technologies and Future of Work

• Technological substitution of labour is a growing concern.
• New occupations and jobs are being created, but they may not align with decent work standards.
• Existing occupations and jobs are being transformed, requiring new skills and adaptability.
• Digital platform work, which increased during the pandemic, does not meet decent work criteria.
• Remote work is becoming more common, but access is uneven across the region.
• Regulation is needed to address the challenges posed by digital platforms and automation.

Policy Challenges

• Employment protection policies and special job creation programs have been implemented.
• Fiscal and credit policies have been used to support the productive sector.
• Specific policies have been introduced to protect the working conditions of women and youth.
• Closing the digital divide and improving regulation are necessary to address the challenges of innovation and automation.
• Labour market regulations must be adapted to ensure inclusive and decent employment processes.
• Other challenges include the automation of production processes and the need for retraining and upskilling.

Key Information

• The report is authored by Alicia Barcena, Mario Cimoli, Raul Garcia-Buchaca, Daniel Titelman, and Sally Shaw.
• It is based on contributions from various experts and divisions within ECLAC.
• The document includes extensive statistical data and analysis from 2018 to 2021.
• It highlights the need for inclusive and sustainable employment policies to support recovery.
• The report also discusses the role of international financial markets, monetary policy, and fiscal measures in shaping the region's economic response to the pandemic.

Conclusion

The 2021 Economic Survey emphasizes the need for coordinated and inclusive employment policies to address the deepening inequality and structural challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean. It calls for improved regulation, investment in digital infrastructure, and support for vulnerable groups such as women and youth to ensure a more equitable and sustainable recovery.