2012年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia_Financial_Sector_Assessment___Housing_Finance_35页_978kb
报告摘要
Summary of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Technical Note on Housing Finance in Mongolia
Core Content
This technical note provides an in-depth analysis of the Mongolian housing finance market, highlighting key challenges, opportunities, and policy recommendations for sustainable development. It is part of the World Bank's Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), aimed at supporting the Government of Mongolia (GoM) in enhancing the stability and efficiency of the housing finance sector.
Main Viewpoints
The Mongolian housing finance market has experienced rapid growth, with mortgage portfolio outstanding increasing by 190% from 2009 to end-2011. This growth has been accompanied by sharp increases in real estate prices, particularly in Ulaanbaatar, raising concerns about market overheating and affordability. The sector is highly concentrated, with the top four lenders accounting for 89% of the market, and most activity centered in and around the capital.
The note emphasizes the need for a holistic sector approach, focusing on three key areas:
- Balancing housing supply and demand: Addressing the mismatch between housing availability and mortgage lending to prevent real estate market overheating.
- Strengthening public housing programs: Ensuring that large-scale, subsidized housing initiatives are well-designed and do not distort the market.
- Improving mortgage funding structure: Enhancing the legal and regulatory framework to support long-term, diversified mortgage funding sources.
Key Information
- Mortgage growth: The portfolio outstanding grew from MNT 290 billion in 2009 to MNT 656 billion by end-2011, representing 8% of 2010 GDP and 12% of the 2011 banking sector loan book.
- Concentration: The top four lenders control 89% of the market, with most lending concentrated in Ulaanbaatar.
- Real estate price appreciation: Housing prices rose sharply, with a 36.7% increase in 2011, outpacing CPI and GDP growth.
- DTI and LTV ratios: The average debt-to-income (DTI) ratio is high (50-70%), and the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is 70%, indicating potential affordability issues and increased credit risk.
- Public housing programs: The "100,000 Apartments" Program and other initiatives are significant, but their design and implementation need to be carefully managed to avoid market distortions.
- SSHF and micro-mortgages: Small-scale housing finance (SSHF) and micro-mortgages are underdeveloped, constrained by funding shortages and asset-liability management (ALM) issues.
- Regulatory and institutional challenges: The real estate brokerage and appraisal sectors lack proper supervision, and the Mongolian Mortgage Corporation (MIK) needs to be restructured to improve its governance, products, and operations.
Key Recommendations
| Issue | Recommendation | Urgency |
|---|---|---|
| Emerging misbalance in housing demand and mortgage lending; rapid real estate price growth in 2011; constrained housing infrastructure | Improve real estate price index and implement its utilization for mortgage lenders' prudential supervision | Short Term |
| Implement prudential counter-cyclical measures to balance housing finance supply with housing availability and loan origination growth | Short Term | |
| Facilitate small-scale housing finance and building-level home improvement lending, particularly energy-efficient modernization of pre-2000 stock, by strengthening legal and regulatory framework for homeowners associations (HOA) | Short Term | |
| Improve consumer disclosure rules, real property appraisal standards, and supervision of real estate agent industry | Short Term | |
| Enhance the capacity and efficiency of State Improveable Property Registry operations | Short to Medium Term | |
| Reduce risks of developer finance by strengthening contractual framework and developing financial vehicles for construction finance | Medium Term | |
| Support increase in residential construction volume by focusing on power and utility infrastructure | Medium Term | |
| Adopt a clear strategy for program design and implementation, considering infrastructure, governance, transparency, funding, and eligibility criteria | Short Term | |
| Estimate and forecast fiscal costs of the program | Short Term | |
| Apply strict, measurable, and transparent eligibility criteria for end-beneficiaries | Medium Term | |
| Consider appropriate and sustainable design of the subsidy mechanism, with down-payment and demand-side subsidies typically preferred | Short Term | |
| Publicly forecast yearly program allocations and ensure they remain a small share of the overall housing finance market | Long Term | |
| Implement strict procurement and project monitoring policies for developer and construction companies | Long Term | |
| Ensure that residential construction and mortgage lending are managed by separate entities | Medium Term | |
| Adopt laws on securitization and mortgage-covered bonds, and enact relevant regulations | Medium Term | |
| Enhance MIK corporate governance to international standards | Medium Term | |
| Evaluate and simplify MIK loan purchase products to maximize lender capital and liquidity benefits | Medium Term | |
| Provide regulatory preferences to MIK debt instruments, such as capital charge and BOM repo regime equal to sovereign bonds | Medium Term | |
| Provide a defined amount and term of sovereign guarantees on MIK debt with a clear sunset provision | Medium Term | |
| Seek arrangements with international developmental institutions to provide partial credit guarantees on MIK debt | Medium Term |
Critical Observations
- The lack of long-term funding sources is a major constraint for the mortgage market, with banks relying heavily on short-term deposits and capital.
- The real estate market is at risk of overheating due to rapid price growth, which is not aligned with GDP or CPI trends.
- The current structure of public housing programs, particularly the role of the Mongolian Housing Finance Corporation (MHFC), may distort the market by offering similar terms to commercial lenders and engaging in both construction and mortgage finance.
- There is a need for more comprehensive and timely housing price data to support regulatory and monetary policy decisions.
- The real estate brokerage and appraisal sectors are underdeveloped and require better supervision and standardization.
- The legal and regulatory framework for housing finance needs to be strengthened to support innovation, transparency, and sustainability in the sector.
Conclusion
The note underscores the importance of a balanced and sustainable approach to housing finance in Mongolia. It calls for enhanced regulatory oversight, improved infrastructure, and better coordination between public and private sectors to ensure long-term stability and growth. The recommendations focus on both short-term measures to address immediate risks and long-term reforms to build a resilient and efficient housing finance system.
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