2015年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Serbia_Public_Finance_Review_2015___Toward_a_Sustainable_and_Efficient_Fiscal_Policy_148页_5mb

Summary of the Republic of Serbia Public Finance Review 2015

Core Content

The Republic of Serbia Public Finance Review 2015, authored by the World Bank, evaluates the country's fiscal policy and outlines recommendations for sustainable and efficient fiscal management. The report highlights the challenges Serbia faces due to its weak economy, high public debt, and inefficient public spending, particularly in the social sectors. It emphasizes the need for structural reforms in tax administration, public sector wage management, pension systems, and subsidies to achieve fiscal sustainability and improve public service efficiency.

Main Views

1. Fiscal Challenges and Debt Sustainability

• Post-2008 Crisis Impact: Serbia's fiscal position has deteriorated since the 2008 global crisis, with fiscal deficits averaging 5.6% of GDP from 2009 to 2014.
• Public Debt Growth: Public debt more than doubled from 34% of GDP in 2008 to 71% in 2014, and without reforms, it is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2020.
• Fiscal Consolidation Necessity: The government must pursue fiscal consolidation to ensure debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability.

2. Fiscal Consolidation Strategy

• 2015-2017 Program: A fiscal consolidation and structural reform program was launched in November 2014, supported by a 3-year Precautionary Stand-by Arrangement from the IMF.
• Spending Reduction Goals: The program aims to reduce public spending from 46.8% of GDP in 2014 to 40.7% by 2017, primarily through cuts in recurrent spending (wages, pensions) and reduced support for public enterprises.
• Human Capital Investment: While fiscal consolidation is a priority, improving the quality of human capital and skills is also essential for long-term competitiveness and income convergence with Western Europe.

Key Information

Tax Administration

• High Compliance Costs: Serbia's tax compliance costs are high, ranking poorly in the Doing Business index (67 payments, 279 hours of compliance).
• Weak Tax Collection: Despite efforts, tax arrears remain large and uncollectible, reaching RSD 711 billion (6% of GDP) by early 2015.
• Shadow Economy: Estimated at 30% of GDP, the shadow economy is a major challenge, driven by underreporting and cash transactions.
• Recommendations:
  • Reduce compliance costs through improved taxpayer services and clearer tax legislation.
  • Reorganize tax administration to focus on high-risk taxpayers.
  • Improve audit performance and reduce non-productive audits.
  • Enhance the IT system and encourage cashless transactions.

Public Sector Wage Bill

• High Wage Bill: The public sector wage bill was 10.1% of GDP in 2013, above the regional average of 8.4%.
• Wage Premiums: Public sector wages are higher than private sector wages, with the gap widening despite recent cuts.
• Structural Issues:
  • Lack of centralized control over staffing and pay.
  • Overstaffing in several sectors (education, health, police).
  • Fragmented regulations and inconsistent pay structures across institutions.
• Reforms in Progress:
  • A new Law on Salaries in Public Administration is being implemented to standardize pay and reduce allowances.
  • A right-sizing program targets a 75,000 reduction in public sector workforce over three years.
  • Functional reviews of central agencies and ministries are expected to identify savings for 2016 and 2017 budgets.

Pension Reform

• High Pension Spending: Pension benefits in Serbia are among the highest in Europe relative to GDP per capita.
• 2014 Reforms: Introduced changes to reduce pension spending, including delinking indexation from general point value and adjusting early retirement benefits.
• Challenges:
  • High proportion of pensioners below retirement age.
  • Growing elderly population and rising pension costs.
• Recommendations:
  • Continue pension reforms to ensure long-term sustainability.
  • Address the rising number of pensioners and future fiscal pressures.

Subsidies and State Support

• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): SOEs receive significant state support, which is a drag on fiscal sustainability.
• Agricultural Support: Subsidies to agriculture, particularly for dairy and fuel, remain substantial.
• Private Sector Support: Limited but still exists in the form of tax incentives and support programs.
• Recommendations:
  • Reduce and restructure support to SOEs.
  • Improve efficiency in agricultural subsidies.
  • Limit state support to the private sector to ensure fair competition.

Social Spending and Equity

• Education and Health Spending: Public spending in these sectors is underperforming in terms of efficiency and equity.
• Social Assistance: Programs are fragmented and lack transparency, with some benefits disproportionately benefiting the wealthy.
• Recommendations:
  • Improve efficiency in education and health spending.
  • Enhance the targeting and effectiveness of social assistance programs.
  • Ensure equitable distribution of benefits.

Distributional Impact

• Poverty and Inequality: Fiscal consolidation measures have a distributional impact, particularly on lower-income groups.
• Key Measures:
  • Public sector wage bill reductions.
  • Pension reforms.
  • Cuts in state support to SOEs.
  • Adjustments in electricity tariffs.
• Impact on Poor: Increased out-of-pocket health payments and reduced social assistance coverage can exacerbate poverty and inequality.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a comprehensive fiscal consolidation strategy that includes tax reform, wage bill reduction, pension system restructuring, and improved social spending efficiency. These reforms are essential for achieving debt sustainability, macroeconomic stability, and long-term growth. The World Bank team recommends sustained efforts in these areas, supported by stronger governance, modernized tax administration, and centralized control over public spending.