2015年-世界发展银行全球_Serbia_Public_Finance_Review___Toward_a_Sustainable_and_Efficient_Fiscal_Policy_170页_5mb

Summary of Serbia Public Finance Review

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, evaluates Serbia's public finance landscape and proposes strategies for achieving fiscal sustainability and improving the efficiency and equity of public spending in key social sectors. The report is structured around four main sections: the need for fiscal consolidation, opportunities for consolidation, improving efficiency in social sectors, and the distributional impact of fiscal consolidation measures.

Main Views and Key Information

I. Introduction and Country Context

• Serbia's fiscal position has deteriorated significantly since the 2008 global crisis.
• Prior to 2008, fiscal deficits were moderate, and public debt was declining.
• Post-2008, economic growth has been minimal, and fiscal deficits have averaged 5.6% of GDP annually from 2009 to 2014.
• Public debt has more than doubled, from 34% of GDP in 2008 to 71% at the end of 2014.
• Structural issues such as state support for SOEs and inefficient tax administration have hindered growth.

II. Opportunities and Options for Fiscal Consolidation

Chapter 2: Revenue and Tax Administration

• Serbia's tax-to-GDP ratio was 34% in 2013–14, which is relatively high but has limited room for further increases due to recent rate hikes.
• Tax compliance costs are high, contributing to a poor investment climate and a large informal economy (estimated at 30% of GDP).
• Serbia ranks poorly in the Doing Business index for tax compliance, with 67 payments and 279 hours of compliance required.
• SMEs are disproportionately affected by tax administration and rates.
• Tax administration is inefficient, with high levels of tax arrears and limited use of risk-based management.
• A 2012 tax amnesty failed to resolve arrears, which have since increased to RSD 711 billion.
• Key recommendations include:
  • Reducing compliance costs by improving taxpayer services and clarifying tax statutes.
  • Restructuring the tax administration to use the right mix of skills.
  • Refocusing audits on large taxpayers and reducing non-productive audits.
  • Improving the management of tax arrears through stronger collection efforts and clearer write-off policies.
  • Updating the IT strategy and system for tax administration.
  • Implementing measures to combat the shadow economy, such as promoting cashless transactions and strengthening enforcement.

Chapter 3: Wage Bill and Staffing in Public Administration

• The public sector wage bill has grown significantly, reaching 10.1% of GDP in 2013, above the regional average of 8.4%.
• There is a wage premium in the public sector, especially for lower-skill jobs, even after recent wage cuts.
• The lack of a centralized system for pay and staffing control has led to inefficiencies, including overstaffing in various sectors.
• The public sector has more than 2,200 job titles, 71 elements of remuneration, 5 different base salaries, and 900 job coefficients.
• The 2005 Civil Servants Law covers only about 5% of public employment, with other sectors regulated by separate laws.
• A new wage law (2015) aims to standardize pay across the public sector, reduce the number of allowances, and introduce performance-based increments.
• The reform is expected to bring greater transparency and reduce inefficiencies, though some aspects are still under definition.

Chapter 4: Pension Reform

• Pension spending is among the highest in Europe relative to GDP per capita.
• The 2014 pension reforms aimed to reduce costs and improve sustainability.
• The reforms included changes to early retirement benefits and delinking pension indexation from general point values.
• The impact of these reforms is expected to reduce pension spending and improve the balance of pension funds.
• Long-term challenges remain, including the sustainability of pension benefits and the need for further reforms.

Chapter 5: Subsidies and State Support to the Economy

• The government provides significant support to SOEs, agriculture, and the private sector.
• State support to SOEs is particularly costly and inefficient.
• Agricultural subsidies are also substantial, with significant support for crops, fuel, and insurance.
• The IPARD program (2014–2020) is a key tool for rural development.
• The report recommends reducing fiscal support to SOEs and improving the efficiency of subsidies.

III. Opportunities for Improving the Efficiency and Equity of Public Spending in Social Sectors

Chapter 6: Education

• Education quality and access are concerns, with disparities between regions.
• Public spending on education is significant but not always effective.
• Teacher-student ratios are high, especially in rural areas.
• The report suggests reforms to improve efficiency, such as better resource allocation and reducing the number of teachers.
• A centralized system for education funding and management is needed to improve outcomes.

Chapter 7: Health

• Health outcomes in Serbia are mixed, with challenges in coverage and quality of services.
• Public health spending has increased but is not always efficient.
• High levels of out-of-pocket payments contribute to financial barriers to health care.
• The report highlights the need for better management of health spending, improved preventive care, and greater financial protection for vulnerable groups.

Chapter 8: Social Assistance

• Social assistance programs are extensive but lack efficiency and equity.
• Means-tested and non-means-tested benefits are both present, but coverage and generosity vary by quintile.
• The report emphasizes the need for better targeting, improved program design, and greater transparency in social assistance spending.

IV. Distributional Impact of Fiscal Consolidation

Chapter 9: Distributional Impact of Fiscal Consolidation Measures

• Fiscal consolidation has a significant impact on different income groups, particularly the poor.
• Public sector wage cuts and pension reforms are expected to reduce the burden on the budget.
• The impact on poverty and labor market outcomes is a key concern, with some programs potentially increasing poverty due to out-of-pocket payments.
• The report suggests that fiscal consolidation should be balanced with investments in human capital to maintain competitiveness and attract FDI.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• The report recommends a comprehensive fiscal consolidation program to achieve debt sustainability.
• Improving tax administration and reducing the shadow economy is critical for increasing revenues.
• Reducing the public sector wage bill and improving efficiency in public administration are key to fiscal sustainability.
• Pension reforms should be continued to ensure long-term sustainability.
• Subsidies should be re-evaluated for efficiency and targeted support.
• Social spending should be optimized for quality, efficiency, and equity.
• Human capital development should be prioritized to support long-term economic growth and convergence with Western Europe.