2003年-世界发展银行全球_Poland_-_Toward_a_Fiscal_Framework_for_Growth___A_Public_Expenditure_and_Institutional_Review_144页_9mb

Summary of Report No. 25033-POL: Toward a Fiscal Framework for Growth in Poland

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank for the Government of Poland, evaluates the current state of public expenditures and proposes reforms to enhance fiscal stability and promote growth. It was based on analyses from several World Bank missions in 2002 and aims to align Poland’s fiscal policy with the requirements of EU accession.

Main Objectives

• Assess public expenditures and develop recommendations for fiscal stability and growth.
• Provide a comprehensive review of macroeconomic context and fiscal reform imperatives.
• Strengthen the institutional framework for public expenditure management.

Key Issues and Recommendations

1. Macroeconomic Context

• Poland's Economic Situation:

  • Achieved low inflation, but faced economic stagnation and high unemployment.
  • Growth slowed to 1% in 2001 and is projected at 1.2% in 2002.
  • Fiscal deficits worsened from -2.8% of GDP in 2000 to -5.3% in 2001 and is projected at -6.6% in 2002.
  • Public debt rose from 42.3% of GDP in 2000 to a projected 49.8% in 2002.

• Fiscal Sustainability:

  • Structural deficits are a major concern.
  • To maintain the debt-to-GDP ratio below 50%, a fiscal deficit reduction of around 3.5% of GDP is needed in 2003.
  • The EU Growth and Stability Pact serves as a benchmark for structural balance and cyclical deficit limits (3% of GDP).
  • Tax expenditures are estimated at 8.5% of GDP in 2000, significantly reducing potential government revenues.
  • Payroll taxes and tax expenditures distort growth incentives.

2. Public Expenditure Management System

• Current Weaknesses:

  • Fragmentation: A large number of extrabudgetary funds and agencies, leading to a lack of integration.
  • Disconnect Between Policy and Budgeting: Policy formulation is largely disconnected from the budget process.
  • Lack of Performance Orientation: Budgets are not aligned with performance outcomes.
  • Accountability Gaps: The accountability framework for public spending is insufficient.

• Recommendations:

  • Consolidate the Budget:

    • Include all public revenues and expenditures in a unified framework.
    • Subject all budget funds to uniform scrutiny and legislative oversight.
    • Unify accounts into a Single Consolidated Fund (Treasury Single Account), shifting from "actual release" to "release of authority."
    • Integrate foreign aid into the budget under the same appropriation process as domestic expenditures.
    • Include an explicit statement of government guarantees in the annual budget.

  • Link Policy Formulation with Budgeting:

    • Implement a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) to assess annual budget needs within a broader policy context.
    • This would facilitate discussions on economic objectives, policy options, and expected results.
    • The MTEF would help align budgeting with long-term strategic goals.

3. Expenditure Policy Reforms

• Social Protection:

  • Key Issues:
    • Disability pensions and social assistance are major contributors to fiscal pressure.
    • There is a need for better targeting and rationalization of programs.
  • Reform Options:
    • Reform the Old Age and Disability System for Farmers (KRUS) to ensure sustainability.
    • Improve the National Fund for the Rehabilitation of Disabled Persons (PFRON) to enhance the effectiveness of support for disabled individuals.

• Health:

  • Key Issues:
    • Health expenditures have increased significantly, with a high proportion of out-of-pocket payments.
    • There are challenges in ensuring equity and efficiency in the health sector.
  • Reform Options:
    • Introduce Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) to improve efficiency.
    • Reduce the reliance on out-of-pocket payments and improve access to healthcare.

• Education:

  • Key Issues:
    • Public education spending is relatively high, but there are disparities in access and quality.
    • The system lacks a strong performance orientation.
  • Reform Options:
    • Promote a more developmental orientation in public expenditures.
    • Enhance equity and quality of education services.

• Environment:

  • Key Issues:
    • Environmental spending has been relatively low, despite the need to improve standards.
    • The country has significant potential for investment in environmental protection.
  • Reform Options:
    • Increase investment in environmental programs to meet EU standards.
    • Leverage EU funds for environmental improvements.

• Agriculture and Rural Development:

  • Key Issues:
    • Agricultural support has been significant, but there are inefficiencies.
    • There is a need to shift from current expenditure to investment.
  • Reform Options:
    • Shift a portion of current budgetary obligations to EU sources.
    • Leverage EU transfers for rural development.

• Transport:

  • Key Issues:
    • Infrastructure in transport is in poor condition.
    • There are inefficiencies in the use of capital and labor.
  • Reform Options:
    • Improve the condition of the road network and railways.
    • Better align transport spending with EU environmental and infrastructure standards.

4. Fiscal Policy for Growth

• Public Sector Size:

  • The public sector is relatively large for Poland’s income level.
  • Reducing its size would create space for private sector development and promote growth.

• Recommendations:

  • Reduce the size of the public sector.
  • Decrease tax expenditures in a budget-neutral manner, such as by reducing payroll taxes.
  • Promote a greater developmental orientation in public expenditures, shifting from current spending to investment.

Key Information

• EU Accession Impact:

  • EU membership presents opportunities for growth and improved living standards.
  • EU funds can be used to reduce the need for domestic expenditure cuts.
  • Net EU benefits are estimated at 0.5–1.0% of GDP in the first years of accession, rising to near 1.0% by 2006.

• Privatization Revenues:

  • The government holds PLN140 billion in companies, or 19% of GDP.
  • Increasing privatization revenues to 1.5% of GDP annually could significantly improve fiscal sustainability.

• Fiscal Risk Management:

  • Public guarantees and delayed pension contributions are major sources of fiscal risk.
  • The government should develop a balance sheet of its financial liabilities and tangible non-financial assets to better manage its solvency and sustainability.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for Poland to implement comprehensive fiscal reforms to ensure long-term stability and growth. Key areas include budget consolidation, improving the alignment of policy and budgeting, enhancing the performance orientation of expenditures, and leveraging EU funds to reduce fiscal pressures. These reforms are essential to meet the challenges of EU accession and to create a more sustainable and growth-oriented fiscal framework.