2016年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Moldova_Public_Finance_Review___Towards_More_Efficient_and_More_Sustainable_Public_Finances_56页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of Moldova Public Finance Review

Core Content

This report, Moldova Public Finance Review: Towards More Efficient and More Sustainable Public Finances, published by the World Bank in August 2016, evaluates Moldova's public finance situation and provides recommendations for improving fiscal sustainability, spending efficiency, and tax system effectiveness. The report highlights that Moldova's public finances have been under increasing pressure due to economic recession, banking sector issues, and reduced donor support, despite historically low deficits.

Main Recommendations

Area	Recommendation
Safeguarding fiscal sustainability	Carefully monitor contingent fiscal liabilities and come up with clear, more stringent rules for providing government guarantees. Make the fiscal rule more effective. Develop the government securities market.
Reducing the size and improving the efficiency of spending	Reform the pension PAYG system to preserve fiscal and social sustainability. Better target social assistance. Continue optimizing the primary and secondary education network and expand formula financing to other education sub-sectors. Optimize the hospital network. Reduce the number of public employees. Reinforce procurement practices. Better regulate public capital investment.
Making the tax system simpler	Reduce tax expenditures. Make the PIT more progressive by increasing the nontaxable amount to the minimum living standard. Improve property valuation to collect more from real estate taxes. Raise excise tax rates over the medium term. Improve tax administration, reduce compliance costs, and simplify the tax structure.

Key Findings

Fiscal Sustainability and Stance

Fiscal Pressures: Moldova's public finances have faced increasing pressure since 2015 due to economic recession, a shortfall in external financing, and reduced donor support. The banking crisis and fraud have significantly increased public debt.
Debt Levels: Public debt was reduced from over 80% of GDP in 2000 to just over 20% in 2008. However, by 2015, it had risen to over 45% of GDP due to public guarantees for defrauded bank depositors.
Fiscal Rule: The fiscal rule introduced in 2014, which limits the fiscal deficit (excluding grants) to 2.5% of GDP, is not effective in promoting fiscal sustainability or counter-cyclical policies. It has been shown to result in less sustainable fiscal balances than actual performance.
Debt Sustainability: According to the IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), Moldova's debt is sustainable, but it is sensitive to increases in contingent liabilities and external shocks. Structural reforms and prudent fiscal policies are needed to ensure long-term sustainability.

Spending Efficiency

Spending Levels: Moldova's government spending averaged 37.8% of GDP from 2000 to 2014, which is higher than that of similar countries in terms of per capita income, human development, and government efficiency.
Public Consumption: Moldova spends more on public consumption than its peers.
Education and Health Spending: These sectors have high spending levels, but efficiency gains are possible.
Pension System: The pension system is becoming socially unsustainable due to a high dependency ratio and low labor market participation.
Efficiency Gains: Moldova's Public Sector Performance (PSP) indicator shows that more efficient countries achieve similar outcomes with 40% less revenue. Improving governance, optimizing public services, and reducing public employment are recommended to enhance efficiency.

Tax System Simplification

Revenue Composition: Moldova's tax system is heavily reliant on indirect taxes (goods and services), and tax revenues have been declining due to increased tax exemptions.
Tax Expenditures: Tax initiatives over the past 15 years have led to a wide range of tax preferences and exemptions, significantly impacting the budget.
Tax Reforms: To improve the tax system, the report suggests reducing tax preferences, increasing the nontaxable amount of personal income tax, improving property valuation, raising excise tax rates, improving tax administration, and reducing compliance costs.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for Moldova to address fiscal sustainability by reducing contingent liabilities and developing the government securities market. It also recommends improving the efficiency of public spending through structural reforms in education, health, and the pension system, and simplifying the tax system to increase revenue and reduce informality. These measures are crucial for ensuring long-term economic stability and growth.

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