2025年全球海上风电报告_104页_15mb

Summary of the GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2025

Core Content

The Global Offshore Wind Report 2025 highlights the pivotal role of offshore wind in the global energy transition and outlines the current state of the industry, challenges, and opportunities for future growth. It emphasizes the need for policy and industry alignment to ensure the sector's continued development and resilience in the face of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Main Points

• Global Installed Capacity: As of 2024, there are 83 GW of offshore wind capacity installed worldwide, providing clean energy to 73 million households.
• Under Construction: An additional 48 GW of offshore wind is currently under construction, signaling continued momentum.
• Market Growth: The industry is projected to grow at a 28% CAGR until 2029 and 15% until 2034, aiming to surpass 30 GW in 2030 and 50 GW by 2033.
• Strategic Importance: Offshore wind is seen as a strategic asset for energy independence and security, particularly in regions with geopolitical instability and energy vulnerability.
• Economic Impact: Offshore wind contributes significantly to economic growth, creating 17,500 FTE jobs per GW and generating substantial gross value added (GVA) in countries like the UK and Europe.

Key Markets

• Japan: Launched the EEZ Bill, setting the stage for floating offshore wind.
• South Korea: Announced a forthcoming auction, with 3.3 GW awarded in 2024.
• China: A major player, with 17.4 GW of offshore wind capacity awarded through auctions in 2024.
• The Philippines: Hosted the first offshore wind auction in June 2025, potentially becoming the first EMDE in APAC to scale offshore wind.
• Vietnam: Expected to generate $60 billion in economic value and over 90,000 jobs by 2050.
• Europe: Led in offshore wind auction awards, with 23.2 GW in 2024, and remains a mature market.
• Brazil and Colombia: Emerging markets with growing interest in offshore wind, focusing on "right first time" approaches.

Challenges

• Macro-economic Headwinds: Rising interest rates and capital costs have affected project economics.
• Policy Instability: Particularly in the US, with policy reversals impacting investor confidence.
• Auction Failures: In some mature markets, such as the UK and Denmark, poor auction design has led to delays and uncertainty.
• Permitting Delays: A major bottleneck in project development, increasing costs and reducing investor confidence.
• Supply Chain Issues: Fragmentation and lack of standardisation across markets are limiting the sector's scalability and resilience.

Recommendations

Redefining Auctions for Delivery

• Better Risk Sharing: Governments and industry must collaborate to ensure clarity on auction volumes and pipelines.
• Predictable Timelines: Auctions should be planned within industry frameworks to enable predictable project timelines.
• Two-Sided Contracts for Difference (CfDs): These mechanisms provide long-term revenue predictability and reduce speculation and risk.
• Treat Grids and Ports as Public Assets: Governments should facilitate long-term planning for critical infrastructure.

Fast-Tracking Permitting

• Clear Deployment Mandates: Governments should implement clear and streamlined permitting processes.
• Centralised Reviews: Permitting should be centralised to reduce delays and complexity.
• Overriding Public Interest: National laws should embed "overriding public interest" to support offshore wind development.
• Early Stakeholder Engagement: Facilitate early and continuous dialogue with local communities to streamline approvals.

Making Finance Fit for Purpose

• Longer-Tenure Loans: Encourage longer-term financing with flexible repayment schedules and inflation-indexed contracts.
• Concessional Funding: Multilateral banks should support initial projects in EMDEs with concessional capital, guarantees, and other risk-sharing tools.
• Bankable Contracts: Governments must issue bankable contracts (e.g., CfDs or REPAs) to provide investment certainty.

Strengthening Supply Chains Through Cooperation and Standardisation

• Regional Coordination: Promote coordinated trade and industrial policies to enhance supply chain efficiency.
• Standardisation: Encourage industry-wide standardisation of components, manufacturing, and operations to improve interoperability and turbine reliability.

Enabling Grid and Transmission Readiness

• Anticipatory Grid Planning: Implement centralised, forward-looking grid planning, as seen in Germany, to reduce delays and improve coordination.
• Clear Grid Responsibilities: Define clear grid connection responsibilities and align offshore hubs with future interconnection needs.
• Address Component Constraints: Focus on global supply chain readiness for transformers, cables, and substations.

Reclaiming the Public Narrative

• Counter Disinformation: Address misleading claims and ideological attacks to reclaim the narrative on offshore wind’s role in clean and secure energy.
• Transparent Dialogue: Engage with local communities to build trust and accelerate project approvals.

Conclusion

The report identifies an inflection point for offshore wind, where the case for growth is stronger than ever, but policy and industry alignment are critical to unlocking its full potential. With strategic investments, effective auction design, and collaborative supply chain development, the sector is poised to drive the next wave of global energy transition and economic growth.