全球海上风电报告2023-118页_12mb

GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2023 Summary

Executive Summary

• Market Status 2022: 8.8 GW of new offshore wind capacity was installed in 2022, marking the second-highest year in history despite an 58% drop from the bumper year of 2021. Europe and China remained the top markets, with China's installations declining 70% YoY due to policy changes.
• Market Outlook: GWEC projects over 380 GW of new capacity to be added by 2032, reaching a cumulative global capacity of 447 GW. The CAGR for the next decade is expected to be 12%. However, one-third of this growth will occur in the next four years due to near-term challenges.
• Floating Wind: Global floating wind capacity additions are projected to reach 10.9 GW by 2030, down from 33 GW previously due to cost and supply chain issues. Europe leads in projects, but commercialization is likely delayed until 2026–2027.
• Supply Chain: Bottlenecks in turbine components, installation vessels (WTIVs), and ports are expected to emerge from 2026 onward, except in China. Regional collaboration is essential to address these issues.

Part 1: Offshore Wind Enablers

• Leasing & Permitting: A well-structured leasing framework aligned with long-term climate goals is crucial. Streamlined permitting processes, such as those in Denmark and the Netherlands, accelerate deployment. Leasing must involve collaboration between public and private sectors.
• Growing Pains: The industry faces profitability challenges due to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and permitting delays. However, GWEC views this as growth pains rather than a crisis.
• Non-Price Criteria: Governments are increasingly using local content requirements (LCRs), environmental criteria, and socio-economic benefits (e.g., job creation) in project selection. These must be balanced to avoid unnecessary costs and delays.
• Skills & Workforce: Offshore wind requires a trained workforce, with GWEC estimating 569,000 technicians needed by 2026. Training programs and incentives (e.g., Inflation Reduction Act in the US) are vital for sustainable deployment.

Part 2: Technology

• Floating Offshore Wind: Early commercial scale-up is happening, but challenges remain in cost and technology readiness. Japan, South Korea, and Europe are leading, with auctions and pilot projects underway.
• Grid & Energy Storage: Grid connections are critical bottlenecks in many markets. Energy islands, meshed grids, and Power-to-X technologies offer solutions for integrating offshore wind into energy systems.
• Green Hydrogen: Offshore wind is key for producing green hydrogen, with major initiatives in Europe, Australia, and Asia. Green hydrogen can address intermittency and unlock new revenue streams.

Markets to Watch

• APAC: China remains dominant, but Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam are growing rapidly. Taiwan has ambitions but faces permitting challenges.
• North America: US offshore wind auctions have advanced, supported by the Inflation Reduction Act. Canada has significant potential, particularly in Nova Scotia and floating wind.
• Africa: South Africa and Morocco are exploring offshore wind as part of their energy transitions, with technical potential surpassing domestic needs.

Appendix

• Methodology: Data collected from regional associations and industry sources. Updates to historic data and terminology.
• Global Leaders: Spotlight features companies like Siemens Gamesa, Shell, and Iberdrola, which are driving innovation.

This summary captures the key points from the entire report, focusing on market trends, challenges, and opportunities while adhering to the user's formatting requirements.