2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Brexits_hot_rentrée_–_The_spectre_of_collapse_or_a_reasoned_outcome_4页_529kb

Brexit’s Hot Rentrée – The Spectre of Collapse or a Reasoned Outcome?

Core Content

The document explores the uncertain political landscape of the Brexit process as it enters a critical phase following the 2016 referendum. It highlights the potential for a collapse of the Brexit process or a reasoned outcome through a second referendum, analyzing the political, public opinion, and institutional challenges involved.

Main Scenarios

1. Mild Scenario: Survival of Theresa May's Government

• The government may survive the upcoming House of Commons vote on the Brexit White Paper.
• The White Paper would be revised, but the "future relationship" between the UK and the EU would remain unspecified, to be finalized after Brexit on 29 March 2019.
• This scenario assumes minimal political upheaval and continued parliamentary support for May.

2. Collapse Scenario

• A collapse could occur through the fall of the government or its leadership, potentially leading to a general election.
• A second referendum is also a credible possibility, gaining increasing public support.
• This scenario is fueled by the inadequacy of May’s White Paper and the growing opposition within her own party.

Key Issues and Obstacles

1. Problems with the Brexit White Paper

• The customs partnership proposal for Northern Ireland is not operationally specified and has been rejected by Michel Barnier.
• The free trade in goods but not services model is unacceptable to the EU, as modern trade is deeply intertwined with services.
• These issues are not easily resolved politically by May, who is caught between hard and soft Brexit factions.

2. Internal Party Divisions in the UK

• A significant portion of the Conservative Party, including David Davis, Boris Johnson, and Jakob Rees-Mogg, are opposing May’s plan.
• The "no deal" advocates are a powerful force that could lead to May’s defeat in a vote.
• There is an unholy alliance between hard and soft Brexit supporters, both of whom reject May’s middle-ground approach.

3. Shift in Public Opinion

• A major shift in public opinion has occurred regarding the need for a second referendum.
• In April 2017, 48% opposed a second vote, but by August 2018, 45% supported it.
• The majority now favours remaining in the EU (53% to 47%), with a stronger preference against a no-deal Brexit (56% remain vs. 44% leave).
• In Northern Ireland, a majority (52%) supports re-unification with Ireland, increasing to 56% if a hard border is involved.

Political Dynamics and Future Events

1. Labour and Conservative Party Conferences

• The Labour Party is under pressure to support a second referendum, with trade unions advocating for it.
• The Conservative Party faces internal conflict between hard Brexiters (Davies, Johnson, Rees-Mogg) and Remainers or soft Brexiters.
• The Prime Minister is stuck in the middle, and the outcome of the conferences will be crucial.

2. Timing and Legal Challenges of a Second Referendum

• A second referendum would require extensive preparation, potentially extending into 2019.
• It would also necessitate unanimous agreement from the EU-27 to extend Article 50, which is politically challenging.
• The legal implications of a second referendum are debated, with some questioning the validity of canceling Article 50.

Deliberative Democracy as an Alternative

1. The Concept of Deliberative Democracy

• The document proposes a deliberative democracy model, which involves iterative consultations to resolve intractable conflicts.
• This approach contrasts with the catastrophic outcome of political populism, which led to the 2016 referendum and subsequent chaos.
• France, Ireland, and the Netherlands have used similar processes in recent years, though they have not formally recognized it as a reasoned method.

2. Potential for a Reasoned Outcome

• The UK is moving towards a second referendum as a means to clarify the Brexit path.
• A second referendum could avoid further political instability and better inform the public.
• The success of this approach depends on whether it becomes a political imperative and whether the alternatives (e.g., general election) are seen as inadequate.

Conclusion

The Brexit process is at a critical juncture, with the possibility of collapse looming large. However, the growing public support for a second referendum and the political divisions within the UK suggest that the outcome may not be as dire as initially feared. The concept of deliberative democracy offers a more structured and informed way to resolve the crisis, although its implementation faces legal and political hurdles. The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether the UK will proceed with a second referendum or face a political and constitutional crisis.