2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Political_Economy_of_Indias_Climate_Agenda_28页_566kb

Summary of The Political Economy of India's Climate Agenda

Core Content

This working document explores the political economy of India's climate agenda, emphasizing the interplay between development, energy access, emissions trends, and policy interventions. It complements the CEPS Policy Brief Understanding India's Climate Agenda, focusing on the domestic and international dimensions of India's approach to climate change.

Main Challenges

• Development and Poverty Eradication: India prioritizes development to alleviate poverty, which is still widespread (nearly 800 million people live on less than $2 per day). Economic growth is essential for both poverty reduction and enhancing adaptive capacity.

• Economic Growth: India's economy has grown rapidly, averaging 8.5% from 2004–05 to 2008–09. However, continued growth will increase GHG emissions, posing a challenge for climate mitigation.

• Climate Vulnerability: India is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly due to extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and the impact of receding Himalayan glaciers on water supply. These factors threaten agriculture, water resources, and the livelihoods of rural and forest communities.

• Energy Access: Over 400 million Indians lack electricity access, and more than 700 million rely on non-commercial biomass for cooking. The disparity in energy access between urban and rural areas persists or widens.

• Emissions Intensity and Energy Intensity: India has successfully decoupled economic growth from GHG emissions, with a decline in emissions intensity of 17.6% between 1990 and 2005. Energy intensity also continues to fall, indicating progress in energy efficiency.

• Future Emissions: India's absolute GHG emissions are expected to grow, but the rate of growth is relatively low compared to other countries. Projections suggest emissions could reach between 4.0 and 7.3 GtCO₂e by 2031 under business-as-usual scenarios. However, the IEA reference scenario estimates emissions at around 3.3 GtCO₂ in 2030, assuming a GDP growth rate of 6.3% annually.

• Energy Subsidies: The energy sector is not net subsidized, but cross-subsidies are prevalent. These include under-recoveries in the oil sector and significant T&D losses in the electricity sector, which are often attributed to inefficient distribution and high commercial losses. The government has started shifting subsidies towards more market-based pricing mechanisms.

Domestic Actions

• National Legislation and Programmes: India has implemented several laws and policies to promote energy conservation and renewable energy, including the Energy Conservation Act (2001), the New and Renewable Energy Policy (2005), and the Integrated Energy Policy (2006).

• National Action Plan on Climate Change: Launched in 2008, this plan outlines an integrated strategy for climate action, focusing on mitigation and adaptation. It includes eight 'national missions' with specific targets and implementation mechanisms.

  • National Solar Mission: Aims to install 20,000 MW of solar power by 2022 and distribute 20 million solar lighting systems to rural areas. It includes measures like renewable purchase obligations, mandatory solar heaters, and soft loans.

  • National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Targets a 5% reduction in energy consumption and annual savings of about 100 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2015. It includes energy efficiency standards, appliance labeling, building and vehicle standards, and domestic energy-efficiency certificate trading.

• State Government Actions: State governments play a key role in providing subsidies and implementing energy-related policies, although they face challenges in balancing financial sustainability and access to energy.

International Negotiations

• India's Position: India advocates for a flexible approach in international climate negotiations, emphasizing the principle of equity. It has not committed to absolute emission reduction targets but has made a voluntary pledge to reduce emissions intensity by 20–25% by 2020.

• COP15 Outcomes: The outcomes of the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen are discussed, highlighting India's stance and the need for a balanced approach in global climate agreements.

Bilateral Partnership with the EU

• EU-India Cooperation: The document explores the potential for strengthening the EU-India partnership to address climate issues, including international and intra-national equity. This cooperation could help in implementing climate policies and enhancing energy transition efforts.

Key Information

• GDP and Emissions: India's GDP and primary energy demand are growing, leading to an increase in absolute GHG emissions. However, its emissions intensity is expected to continue declining.

• Energy Mix: Coal accounts for about 38% of India's primary energy supply, with renewable energy contributing only 7.7% of total installed capacity. Despite growth in renewable capacity, its share in the primary energy mix remains low.

• Infrastructure Needs: To meet growing energy demands, India needs to significantly expand its power generation capacity. The government aims to increase it from 156,000 MW in 2009 to nearly 800,000 MW by 2031–32, requiring substantial investment.

• Subsidy Reforms: There is a push to reform energy subsidies by aligning them with market prices, particularly for kerosene, while maintaining support for the poorest segments of the population.

• Equity Focus: India maintains a strong preference for the principle of equity in climate negotiations, arguing that developed countries should take the lead in emission reductions due to historical responsibility.

Conclusion

India's climate agenda is shaped by its developmental priorities, economic growth, and energy challenges. While its emissions intensity continues to decline, absolute emissions are expected to rise. The government is pursuing a mix of domestic actions, including renewable energy promotion and energy efficiency measures, alongside a flexible international approach. Strengthening the EU-India partnership could offer new opportunities for addressing climate equity and supporting sustainable development.