2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Industry_Location_and_Climate_Change_Policy_10页_149kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Industry Location and Climate Change Policy-Making in the United States"

Core Content

This paper explores how the geographic distribution of carbon-intensive industries in the United States—particularly coal, oil & gas, and the auto industry—shapes climate change policy-making. It argues that while all three industries have economic and political influence, the coal industry exerts a disproportionate impact due to its concentration in key battleground states, which play a critical role in national elections.

Main Industries and Their Distribution

Coal Industry: Highly concentrated in a few states, with the top four states (Kentucky, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming) accounting for 59% of the national coal industry in 2001. These states collectively have only 8.6% of the total electoral votes, yet their political significance is amplified due to their role in presidential elections.
Oil & Gas Industry: More dispersed than the coal industry, with 10 states contributing over $1 billion in value added. However, it is still regionally concentrated, particularly in the Southwestern and Western states.
Auto Industry: Even more dispersed than oil & gas, with 18 states contributing over $1 billion in value added. It is concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest, with Michigan and Ohio being major hubs.

Economic and Political Significance

The coal industry's economic contribution is smaller compared to oil & gas and auto industries, but its political influence is significant due to its presence in battleground states.
In states like Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the coal industry's share of the gross state product is relatively small (0.3%–5.4%), yet it plays a pivotal role in shaping election outcomes.
In Ohio, the coal industry is not as dominant as in other states, but its importance is magnified due to the state's status as a battleground and its reliance on coal for electricity production.

Battleground States and Presidential Elections

The 2000 and 2004 presidential elections highlighted the importance of battleground states, where the margin of victory is often small.
These states include Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia (coal states), Colorado and Louisiana (oil & gas states), and Michigan and Missouri (auto states).
In the 2004 election, John Kerry faced a significant challenge in persuading voters in battleground states, particularly those who were undecided or open to change.
Coal-related industries are especially influential in these states due to their economic and political weight.

Political Influence and Campaign Contributions

The coal industry has a notable political influence, partly due to campaign contributions.
Between 1999 and 2004, coal companies contributed nearly $9 million to candidates, with 90% going to Republicans.
In the 2002 and 2004 elections, the top ten coal corporations contributed over $3 million, again predominantly to Republican candidates.

Pluralistic Political Economy Model

The paper uses the pluralistic political economy model to explain how various economic interest groups, including industries, influence US policy-making.
This model suggests that a diverse economic system leads to multiple competing interests, and that government policy is shaped by coalitions of these groups.
In the context of climate policy, the coal industry's influence is magnified due to its concentration in battleground states, where political outcomes are more uncertain and thus more susceptible to industry lobbying.

Conclusion

The coal industry, despite its relatively small economic size, has a disproportionate impact on US climate policy due to its strategic location in key battleground states.
These states, with their narrow margins of victory, give coal industry interests significant leverage in the political process.
The paper highlights the intersection of economic geography and political strategy, showing how the distribution of industries can shape national policy outcomes.

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