麦肯锡-全球天然气展望2050（英文）-2021.5-8页_603kb

报告摘要

2021 Global Gas Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2021 Global Gas Outlook to 2050 report provides a comprehensive analysis of the future trajectory of global gas and LNG markets, based on a reference case and an accelerated transition scenario. It outlines key trends, challenges, and opportunities for the gas industry through 2050.

Main Findings

1. 2020 Market Volatility

2020 was marked by extreme market fluctuations in both gas and LNG.
Gas demand declined by 3%, while LNG demand grew by 1%, indicating resilience in the LNG market.
Price volatility is expected to persist through the medium term due to the unpredictable balance between supply and demand.

2. Asia as the Key Driver of LNG Demand

Asia will continue to be the main driver of LNG demand growth.
China and India combined drove 9.5 million metric tons (MT) of LNG demand growth in 2020.
China’s role as a demand driver will diminish after 2035, with South and Southeast Asia taking over.

3. LNG Demand Growth and Supply Requirements

LNG is expected to grow 3.4% annually through 2035 and 0.5% annually from 2035 to 2050.
100 MT of additional liquefaction capacity will be required by 2035, and over 200 MT by 2050.
138 MT of LNG capacity is currently under construction.
The US is likely to be a major source of new LNG supply due to its long-run marginal capacity.

4. Gas Demand Trends

Gas demand is projected to grow until 2037, after which it will decline slowly.
LNG will replace declining pipeline and domestic gas in the global supply mix, increasing its share from 13% to 23% by 2050.
Gas for power will decline in Europe, Japan, and North America due to the energy transition, while industrial and chemical gas use will grow beyond 2035.

5. Energy Transition Impact

The accelerated energy transition will reshape gas demand patterns.
Transport sector gas demand is expected to grow by 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2035, with a 2.2% CAGR.
Developing markets will see higher gas demand as they move away from coal, while more-developed markets will reduce gas use more rapidly.

Key Information

Global Gas Demand:
- Peaks in 2037.
- Declines by 0.4% annually from 2035 to 2050.
- Power generation is the largest sector, but its demand will decline in developed regions.
LNG Outlook:
- Demand growth is stronger than gas due to supply constraints in key markets.
- LNG share in global gas supply is projected to increase from 13% to 23% by 2050.
- LNG cost curve reflects the importance of emission intensity and project feasibility.
Industry Trends:
- Emission intensity is becoming a critical factor in LNG contracts.
- 33% of LNG buyers anticipate that emission-intensity clauses will become more common.
- Global emission regulations are expanding, affecting LNG supply and demand dynamics.

Models and Methodology

Global Gas & LNG Model:
- Forecasts supply, demand, infrastructure, and gas flows.
- Uses flexible scenarios for "what-if" analyses.
LNG Cost Curve:
- Provides a bottom-up view of LNG liquefaction costs, project feasibility, and emissions impact.
- Covers over 1,100 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of known LNG projects.
LNG Optimization Model:
- A linear programming model that defines optimal flows between production and consumption.
- Takes into account logistics costs, physical constraints, and price outlooks.

About Energy Insights

Energy Insights is a global market intelligence and analytics group.
It provides strategic, tactical, and operational insights to energy companies using market models, proprietary data, and industry expertise.
The report is intended for strategic decision-making and not as investment advice.