2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Zambia_Selected_Issues_32页_1mb

Zambia Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of key economic issues in Zambia, including the change in the mining fiscal regime, financial inclusion, and inclusive growth. The analysis is based on data and models up to May 5, 2015, and highlights the interplay between fiscal policy, investment, and economic development.

Mining Fiscal Regime Analysis

Background

• The mining sector, particularly copper, has seen a revival due to foreign investment, which has increased production from ~250,000 tons in 2000 to over 750,000 tons in 2013.
• Despite this growth, the sector's direct contribution to government revenues (royalties and corporate income tax) was historically low, averaging less than 0.1% of GDP in 2000–07.
• The 2015 budget introduced significant changes to the mining fiscal regime, shifting from a dual system (royalty + CIT) to a royalty-only system with differentiated rates.

Changes in the 2015 Budget

• Royalty rates: 8% for underground and 20% for open cast mining.
• Corporate income tax (CIT): Abolished for mining operations, but retained for tolling and processing activities.
• Variable income tax: Removed from the regime.
• The government estimated that the change would increase mining sector revenues by about 1% of GDP, assuming no adverse impact on production.

International Comparisons (FARI Model)

• Average Effective Tax Rate (AETR): Zambia's AETR was among the highest in copper-producing countries in 2014.
• Marginal Effective Tax Rate (METR): Zambia's METR was high relative to other countries.
• Breakeven price: Increased significantly under the 2015 regime, making new investment less attractive.

Estimated Impact of the 2015 Changes

• The new regime reduced the AETR for low-cost projects but increased it for high-cost ones.
• The breakeven price for high-cost projects rose from ~US$3,100/ton to ~US$6,130/ton.
• The METR also increased for both projects, reducing incentives for investment.
• Negative outcomes: Some mining companies reduced operations and postponed investments, with potential loss of 150,000 tons of annual production and 12,000 jobs.
• Revenue underperformance: Mineral royalties were 41% below the government's target in the first quarter of 2015.

Changes Announced on April 20, 2015

• The revised regime reintroduced a dual system of royalty and CIT, with a single royalty rate of 9% for both open cast and underground mining.
• CIT rates: 30% for mining operations, 35% for processing, and a variable income tax based on profitability.
• Tax loss carry forward: Limited to 50% of taxable profits.
• Penalties: Strengthened for tax offenders.
• Implementation: Expected to take effect from July 1, 2015, pending parliamentary approval and ZRA's readiness.

Financial Inclusion in Zambia

Introduction

• High lending rates and limited access to credit, especially for SMEs, are major concerns.
• Credit to the private sector was at 14% of GDP in 2014, below the sub-Saharan average.
• The paper addresses three key areas: access, depth, and efficiency in financial services.

Access

• The number of bank branches has been increasing, especially in rural areas.
• The Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has drafted regulations for agency banking to improve access.

Depth

• Collateral requirements are high due to weak legal frameworks and institutions.
• The BoZ has taken steps to unify the collateral registration system and improve credit culture.
• A Personal Property and Security Interests Bill is being developed to address registration of movable assets.
• An Insolvency Bill is also in progress to strengthen procedures and improve land titling.

Efficiency

• High lending rates and inefficiencies in financial intermediation have been addressed with lending rate ceilings introduced in early 2013.
• These ceilings have become more binding as treasury bill rates increased.
• The model shows that reducing interest spreads and improving collateral registration can enhance firm access to credit and economic growth.

Inclusive Growth in Zambia

Introduction

• The paper examines the drivers and constraints to inclusive growth in Zambia.
• It highlights the importance of growth sources and barriers to equitable economic development.

Sources of Growth

• The mining sector has been a major contributor to GDP and employment.
• However, the sector's performance has been affected by changes in copper prices, fiscal policy, and investment incentives.

Constraints to Inclusive Growth

• High lending rates and collateral requirements limit access to credit for SMEs.
• Weak legal and institutional frameworks affect the depth and efficiency of financial services.
• Fiscal regime changes have raised concerns about their impact on investment and employment.

Conclusions

• The revised mining fiscal regime aims to restore stability and predictability in the sector.
• Enhancing financial inclusion is crucial for inclusive growth.
• Further reforms are needed to strengthen institutions, improve access, and ensure efficiency in the financial system.

Key Figures and Tables

Figures

1. Copper Revenue, Prices and Mining Value Added, 2005–14
2. Copper Price, Royalty Rate, and Copper Exports
3. Contribution from Mining Activity in Selected Countries
4. Tax Burden from the Mining Fiscal Regime in Selected Copper Producing Countries
5. Tax Burden Across Zambia's Mining Fiscal Regimes
6. Bank Lending Rate
7. Credit to the Private Sector
8. Financial Inclusion and Deepening Indicators
9. Number of Bank Branches and Agencies
10. Treasury Bill Rates and Lending Rate Ceiling
11. The Impact of Various Measures on Growth and Firms' Access to Credit

Tables

1. Reforms to the Mining Fiscal Regime for Base Metals, 2006–15
2. Stylized Project Examples
3. Simulated Fiscal Regimes with the FARI Model for Low and High Costs Projects
4. Mining Fiscal Regimes: Zambia and Comparators

Conclusion

• The 2015 mining fiscal regime changes had mixed impacts, with increased tax burdens and reduced incentives for investment.
• The return to a dual system in April 2015 was seen as a step in the right direction but remains subject to further evaluation.
• Financial inclusion remains a key challenge, with high lending rates and collateral requirements limiting SME access to credit.
• Enhancing the financial system's depth and efficiency is critical for inclusive growth.