2016年-世界发展银行全球_Poverty_Reduction_and_Shared_Prosperity_in_Moldova___Progress_and_Prospects_60页_2mb

报告摘要

Moldova Poverty Assessment 2016 Summary

Core Content

The Moldova Poverty Assessment 2016 evaluates the country's progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity over the past decade, highlighting both achievements and ongoing challenges.

Main Findings

Poverty Reduction: Moldova experienced a significant decline in poverty rates, dropping from 68% in 2000 to 11.4% in 2014. The World Bank poverty line (5 USD a day) saw a similar decline, with absolute poverty almost eradicated at 2.9%.
Shared Prosperity: The bottom 40% of the population saw faster consumption growth than the average population, contributing to shared prosperity.
Economic Growth: Moldova's GDP grew at an average of 5% annually since 2000, though growth was volatile, especially in 2015, with a GDP contraction of -0.5%.
Inequality Reduction: The Gini coefficient fell from 0.3 to 0.23 between 2007 and 2014, indicating improved income distribution.
Pro-Poor Growth: Economic growth was pro-poor, driven by private consumption, remittances, and pensions. These public and private transfers were key in improving living standards, especially for the poor and bottom 40%.
Labor Market Trends: Employment rates declined from 55% in 2000 to below 40% in 2014, particularly in rural areas. The decline was due to migration, early retirement, and high inactivity rates. However, nonagricultural wage increases offset some of the employment losses.
Sectoral Shifts: The agricultural sector remained a major employer, but low-intensity agriculture increased, while nonagricultural sectors saw better wage growth. The poor and bottom 40% were disproportionately reliant on agriculture.
Nonmonetary Poverty: Despite economic progress, 24% of the population were multidimensionally poor in 2014, defined by lack of access to education, health, and housing. This is more than double the monetary poverty rate.

Key Drivers of Poverty Reduction

Remittances: Remittances accounted for 26% of GDP in 2014 and contributed 21.6% to the income growth of the bottom 40% between 2010-2014.
Pensions: Government pension increases played a critical role in poverty reduction, contributing over 30% to the consumption growth of the bottom 40% between 2007-2014.
Nonagricultural Wage Growth: Despite declining employment, nonagricultural sectors saw wage growth, which helped reduce poverty.
High Upward Mobility: The country experienced high upward economic mobility, with limited churning, meaning fewer people moved in and out of poverty over time.

Abiding Challenges and Risks

Spatial and Group Inequalities: Poverty remains more prevalent in rural areas and ethnic minorities, with regional disparities still significant. For example, poverty in other regions is five times higher than in Chișinău.
Fiscal Pressures: The pension system is under fiscal strain, with low replacement rates and limited coverage. An aging population and low labor force participation threaten the system's sustainability.
Economic Volatility: The economy is vulnerable to external shocks, such as changes in EU and Russian economic conditions, and climate-related disruptions in agriculture.
Limited Social Safety Nets: Social assistance programs, like Ajutor Social and heating allowances, are well-targeted but low in coverage and benefits, making them insufficient as a safety net.
Agricultural Volatility: The agricultural sector is highly susceptible to climate shocks and external demand fluctuations, which directly impact the livelihoods of the poor.

Policy Implications

Strengthening Labor Markets: Creating more and better nonagricultural jobs is essential for future progress.
Improving Education and Health Access: Enhancing access to education and healthcare can improve productivity and reduce vulnerability.
Addressing Aging Population: Policies promoting active and healthy aging can help reduce the dependency ratio and support the pension system.
Regional Equity: Ensuring equitable opportunities for rural populations and ethnic minorities is crucial for reducing disparities.
Climate Adaptation: Strengthening social assistance and labor market policies to mitigate the impact of climate shocks is necessary for long-term stability.

Conclusion

Moldova has made notable progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity, but this progress is not without risks and challenges. The country remains one of the poorest in Europe, and sustaining this progress requires addressing structural issues such as aging, regional disparities, and economic volatility. A more robust domestic labor market and enhanced social safety nets are critical for achieving long-term poverty reduction and shared prosperity.

References

Economic growth was volatile but positive and pro-poor overall.
Remittances and pensions were key in reducing poverty.
Nonagricultural wage growth played a significant role in poverty reduction despite declining employment.
Multidimensional poverty remains a challenge, with 24% of the population affected in 2014.
Fiscal sustainability and climate vulnerability pose risks to future progress.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Poverty rate and GDP per capita, latest available.
Figure 2: Welfare growth of the bottom 40 and average population, latest available.
Figure 3: GDP growth, 2001-15.
Figure 4: Real GDP index (2007 = 100).
Figure 5: Employment rate by demographics and location, 2000-14.
Figure 6: Activity rate by demographics and location, 2000-14.
Figure 7: Poverty headcount ratio, 2007-14.
Figure 8: Poverty rates, by urban and rural areas, %.
Figure 9: Poverty rates, by region, %.
Figure 10: Poverty gap, by urban and rural areas.
Figure 11: Poverty gap squared, by urban and rural areas.
Figure 12: Real consumption per capita growth, by group.
Figure 13: Dynamics of consumption per capita inequality.
Figure 14: Real consumption growth, urban areas.
Figure 15: Real consumption growth, rural areas.
Figure 16: Real consumption growth, the bottom 40 and total population, by country.
Figure 17: Households in poverty that escaped poverty or the nonpoor who fell into poverty, %.
Figure 18: Intragenerational mobility, by share of the population, Moldova, 2007-14.
Figure 19: GDP per capita and $5.00-a-day poverty, Europe and Central Asia, latest available data.
Figure 20: Welfare group decomposition, by country, latest available data.
Figure 21: GDP growth decomposition.
Figure 22: GDP and household income and consumption growth.
Figure 23: Growth incidence curve, total population, 2007-14.
Figure 24: Datt-Ravallion decomposition of changes in the decline in the poverty rate.
Figure 25: Decomposition of income growth, the bottom 40, by income source, 2007-14, %.
Figure 26: Decomposition of changes in poverty, by income source, 2007-14, % points.
Figure 27: Reason for unemployment or inactivity, 15-65 age-group, 2014.
Figure 28: Underemployment among the employed ages 15+, 2014.
Figure 29: Employment status of the poor.
Figure 30: Employment status of the bottom 40.
Figure 31: Population distribution, manufacturing and investment, by location, 2014.
Figure 32: Share of employment abroad in total employment, %.
Figure 33: Employment in agriculture.
Figure 34: Employed populations, by sector.
Figure 35: Employment sector of the poor.
Figure 36: Employment sector of the bottom 40.
Figure 37: Average monthly salary earnings for employees, by sector.
Figure 38: Monthly labor income, bottom 40 and top 60.
Figure 39: Share of low-intensity agriculture among adults (aged 15+).
Figure 40: Real growth, average monthly pension, % year-on-year.
Figure 41: Real growth, average monthly pension, by welfare group, % year-on-year.
Figure 42: Income structure of the poor, %.
Figure 43: Income structure of the bottom 40, %.
Figure 44: Income structure, poor, by area.
Figure 45: Income structure, bottom 40, by area.
Figure 46: Real year-on-year growth of social assistance, by group.
Figure 47: Share of social assistance in overall income, by group.
Figure 48: Adult population (15+) who are active in Moldova or abroad, 2000-14.
Figure 49: Remittances as a share of monthly disposable household income, 2006-14, %.
Figure 50: Remittances as a share of GDP, 2014.
Figure 51: Household welfare ranking before (left) and after (right) remittances.
Figure 52: Urban population share in selected countries, %.
Figure 53: Type of settlement, poor and nonpoor.
Figure 54: Type of settlement, bottom 40 and top 60.
Figure 55: Age composition of the poor.
Figure 56: Age composition of the bottom 40.
Figure 57: Poverty rate, by household composition.
Figure 58: Dependency ratio, the poor and nonpoor.
Figure 59: Composition, remittance households.
Figure 60: Poverty rate, by age.
Figure 61: Living conditions and access to utilities, poor.
Figure 62: Living conditions and access to utilities, bottom 40.
Figure 63: Level of education of among poor and nonpoor adult population.
Figure 64: Level of education of among bottom 40 and top 60 adult population.
Figure 65: Population, by health status.
Figure 66: Nonmonetary indicators.
Figure 67: Nonmonetary poor, by region.
Figure 68: Share of people deprived in each dimension.
Figure 69: Contribution of each dimension to multidimensional poverty.
Figure 70: Overlap, nonmonetary and monetary poor.
Figure 71: Nonmonetary poverty, by subjective well-being and consumption quintiles.
Figure 72: Demographic composition, 2000-30.
Figure 73: Age-gender pyramid, 2015-60.
Figure 74: Adult (15+) dependency ratio: inactive population relative to active population, 2013.
Figure 75: Pension system dependency ratio, number of pensioners per contributor.
Figure 76: Pension coverage, population above standard retirement age.
Figure 77: Replacement rates, selected countries.
Figure 78: Replacement rates, 2013-2069.
Figure 79: Remittances to Moldova, 1995-2015.
Figure 80: Value added in agriculture and GDP growth, 2001-14.
Figure 81: Composition of the consumption of the poor and nonpoor.
Figure 82: Composition of the consumption of the bottom 40 and top 60.
Figure 83: Consumer price indicators, year-on-year, 2007-15.

Tables

Table 1: Moldovan labor emigrants, by labor sector in home and destination countries, 2012.
Table 2: Multidimensional poverty index: dimensions and indicators.