20140127-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

FX & IR EM Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the foreign investment flows and foreign exchange reserve movements in Emerging Markets (EM) as of 27 January 2014. It includes data on equity and bond flows across different regions, specifically Asia, CEEMEA, and LATAM, along with insights into the behavior of foreign investors and the impact of macroeconomic indicators.

Main Points

Emerging Market Bond Flows

• Overall: EPFR reported outflows from emerging market bond funds, with a total of USD 430 million, though lower than previous weeks.
• Asia: Net bond flows remained positive, but the pace of inflows slowed. Inflows into India and Korea moderated, while Indonesia saw an increase. However, the Philippines experienced accelerated bond outflows in the first two weeks of January, similar to May 2013.
• CEEMEA: South Africa and Hungary recorded negative flows. South Africa's outflows reached over USD 1.1 billion, significantly higher than equity outflows. In Turkey, foreign holdings of bonds increased by USD 0.9 billion, primarily due to offshore Turkish banks, while foreign non-bank financials reduced holdings by TRY 0.7 billion.
• LATAM: Foreign investors gradually extended their portfolio duration in the first two weeks of January, reversing the trend from December 2013. A notable drop in foreign ownership of local debt occurred on January 9th, attributed to risk reduction ahead of NFP and poor CPI data.

Emerging Market Equity Flows

• Asia: Net equity flows remained positive, but the pace slowed. Equity inflows in Taiwan, India, and Indonesia decreased.
• CEEMEA: South Africa and Hungary saw negative equity flows. South Africa's equity outflows were USD 123 million for the month to date.
• LATAM: Equity flows are not detailed in the summary, but the document includes charts and data on bond flows and foreign ownership.

FX Reserve Accumulation

• Asia: FX reserves showed mixed trends, with some countries experiencing increases and others declines.
• CEEMEA: FX reserves in South Africa and Hungary showed negative changes.
• LATAM: FX reserves in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia showed varying levels of change, with Brazil having the highest foreign bond holdings.

Key Information

Regional Analysis

Asia

• Equity Flows: Positive net flows, but the pace slowed. Equity inflows in Taiwan, India, and Indonesia decreased.
• Bond Flows: Inflows into India and Korea slowed, while Indonesia saw an increase. The Philippines experienced significant bond outflows.
• Foreign Ownership: Foreign ownership of Thai government bonds was moderate despite political instability. In Korea, foreign ownership of government bonds was higher than corporate bonds. In Malaysia, foreign ownership of government bonds and corporate bonds was reported, with a significant drop in ownership on January 9th.

CEEMEA

• Equity Flows: South Africa and Hungary had negative flows. South Africa's outflows were much higher than equity outflows.
• Bond Flows: Turkey saw an increase in foreign bond holdings, while non-bank financials in Turkey reduced their holdings.
• Foreign Ownership: Foreign ownership of Turkish bonds increased, while in South Africa and Hungary, it was lower.

LATAM

• Bond Flows: Foreign investors extended their portfolio duration, reversing the trend from December 2013. A significant drop in foreign ownership of local debt was recorded on January 9th.
• Foreign Ownership: Brazil had the highest foreign bond holdings, while Mexico and Colombia showed lower levels.

Data Sources and Notes

• Equity Flows: Data sources include local stock exchanges and EPFR. Daily data may not reflect actual cross-border flows due to the nature of the reporting.
• Bond Flows: Data sources include central banks and financial institutions. The document notes the limitations of daily data, such as not accounting for redemptions in Korea.
• FX Reserves: Data is sourced from various central banks and financial institutions. The document includes monthly and 3-month moving average (3mma) changes.

Appendix

• Data Notes: The document provides detailed caveats on the data sources and limitations, emphasizing that the information is not exhaustive and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• Important Disclosures: The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment research. It does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis and may not be relied upon as authoritative.
• Legal Disclaimer: The report is non-independent research and may be subject to legal requirements in different jurisdictions. BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the issuers mentioned and may have acted upon the information before publication.

Contacts

• EM Strategy: Bartosz Pawlowski (Global Head of EM Strategy), Piotr Chwiejczak, Dina Ahmad, Stanislav Petrov, Tatiana Tchembarova
• CEEMEA Strategy: Erkin Isik (Istanbul), Mirza Baig, Rohit K Garg, Jasmine Poh, Yii Hui Wong
• Asia Strategy: Mirza Baig, Rohit K Garg, Jasmine Poh, Yii Hui Wong
• LATAM Strategy: Gabriel Gersztein (Sao Paulo), Thiago Alday, James Z Hao

Distribution and Legal Information

• Distribution: Contact Diana Seifert for distribution inquiries.
• Legal Information: The report is non-independent and has been approved for publication in the UK, France, Germany, and the US. It is classified as non-objective research and is intended for professional clients only.