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报告摘要

EM Flows Tracker Summary - 07 September 2015

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the latest trends in Emerging Market (EM) fund flows, focusing on equity and bond inflows/outflows across different regions, including Asia, CEEMEA, and Latam. It also includes information on FX reserves and foreign ownership of local debt.

Main Points

Global EM Fund Flows

EM bond funds are experiencing large redemptions, with USD 3bn in outflows last week and USD 10bn in the past four weeks.
EM equities have seen outflows for eight consecutive weeks, though the pace slowed to USD 5.2bn last week.

Asia

Portfolio outflows continue in Asia, led by equities, with all countries seeing outflows for the fourth consecutive week.
Equity outflows moderated last week, but Malaysia had larger outflows in August (-USD 970mn) than in July (-USD 740mn).
Bond flows remain lacklustre, with Thailand seeing increased foreign selling and Indonesia experiencing negative bond flows.
Non-residents' share of domestic public debt in Colombia remained stable at 16.2% in August 2015, representing 23.5% of international reserves.
Overall, Latam posted redemptions from both bond and equity funds, totaling USD 889mn and USD 423mn respectively, with outflows since May 2015 amounting to USD 11bn.

CEEMEA

South Africa's ZAR depreciation has accelerated, and the 1y Risk Reversal is pricing a call strike at around 18.50, indicating pressure on interest rates.
FI outflows accelerated in South Africa, and Turkey saw slight inflows, but pressure on TRY and ZAR is increasing.
Investors in Hungary continue to reduce holdings of HUGBs in an orderly manner, as local investors shift to government bonds.

Latam

Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia have seen the largest outflows.
Non-residents' share of domestic public debt in Mexico is 36.5%, representing USD 126.1bn or 67.9% of international reserves.
In Brazil, non-residents' holdings of local debt reduced from 20% to 19.6%.
Colombia's non-residents' share of domestic public debt remained stable at 16.2% in August 2015.

Key Information

Equity Flows

Equity outflows are ongoing across Asia, with a moderation in the pace.
Malaysia had the highest equity outflows in August.
Equity inflows are reported in USD mn, with some data converted to monthly pace.

Bond Flows

Bond flows remain lacklustre in most Asian countries.
Thailand continues to see increased foreign selling.
Indonesia's bond flows turned negative in August.
In Latam, non-residents' bond holdings showed strong outflows, particularly in Brazil and Mexico.
In South Africa, FI outflows are expected to increase due to the lack of compensation from interest rates for ZAR depreciation.

FX Reserves

FX reserves in Asia, CEEMEA, and Latam have shown monthly changes, with some countries experiencing significant inflows and others outflows.
FX reserves in Thailand, India, and Korea have been affected by bond and equity flows.
The percentage of FX reserves held in bonds varies across countries.

Summary of Key Charts

Chart 1: EM equity vs EM bonds flows
Chart 2: Weekly EM bond flows by currency type vs JPM USD EM bond ETF
Chart 3: Equity inflows: latest snapshot
Chart 5: EPFR weekly flows in all EM and Asia equities
Chart 7: EPFR weekly flows in all EM and EMEA equities
Chart 8: Asian bond inflows: recent trends
Chart 10: CEEMEA bond inflows: recent trends
Chart 12: Latam bond inflows: recent trends
Chart 14: Asian FX reserves – monthly change
Chart 16: CEEMEA FX reserves – monthly change
Chart 18: Latam FX reserves – monthly change
Chart 25: Asia net debt and equity flows
Chart 38: Turkey foreign bond holdings
Chart 40: South Africa foreign bond holdings
Chart 42: Hungary foreign bond holdings
Chart 44: Brazil foreign bond holdings
Chart 46: Mexico foreign bond holdings
Chart 48: Colombia foreign bond holdings

Important Disclosures

This document is classified as non-objective research and is a marketing communication.
It is not independent investment research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
The information and opinions are based on public sources and may not be accurate or up to date.
No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on the report.
The report is for professional clients only and not for retail clients.
BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the mentioned issuers or persons and may be involved in investment banking or underwriting services.